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Seattle, WA · ZIP 98040 · Census Tract 53033024500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.99M
Downside (P10)
$1.56M
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.00M
+0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.83M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $921K | $945K | $981K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.7M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$1,067,507 | -$1,043,407 | -$1,007,107 | -$868,307 | -$790,407 | -$590,007 | -$455,507 | -$242,707 | -$77,907 | +$11,494 | +$20,870 | -$14,409 | +$7,316 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -53.7% | -52.5% | -50.6% | -43.7% | -39.7% | -29.7% | -22.9% | -12.2% | -3.9% | +0.6% | +1.0% | -0.7% | +0.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.4M | $2.6M | $2.8M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$1.6M to $2.4M
39.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$1.6M to $2.8M
63.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle (Tract 006400) | $1.62M | $1.84M | +13.4% | |
| Seattle (Tract 004101) | $2.04M | $2.29M | +12.3% | |
| Seattle (Tract 007800) | $1.68M | $1.85M | +10.0% | |
| Seattle (Tract 006800) | $1.62M | $1.76M | +8.6% | |
| Seattle (Tract 006300) | $2.04M | $2.17M | +6.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle (Tract 007302) | $908K | $1.11M | +22.2% | |
| Seattle (Tract 004401) | $1.20M | $1.46M | +22.0% | |
| Seattle (Tract 008200) | $825K | $981K | +18.9% | |
| Seattle (Tract 010401) | $819K | $965K | +17.8% | |
| Seattle (Tract 000202) | $809K | $951K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle (Tract 007203) | $501K | $523K | $260K | |
| Seattle (Tract 007502) | $462K | $531K | $244K | |
| Seattle (Tract 007404) | $493K | $535K | $210K | |
| Seattle (Tract 009100) | $449K | $455K | $209K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Seattle, WA · ZIP 98040 · Census Tract 53033024500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.99M
Downside (P10)
$1.56M
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.00M
+0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.83M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $921K | $945K | $981K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.7M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$1,067,507 | -$1,043,407 | -$1,007,107 | -$868,307 | -$790,407 | -$590,007 | -$455,507 | -$242,707 | -$77,907 | +$11,494 | +$20,870 | -$14,409 | +$7,316 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -53.7% | -52.5% | -50.6% | -43.7% | -39.7% | -29.7% | -22.9% | -12.2% | -3.9% | +0.6% | +1.0% | -0.7% | +0.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.4M | $2.6M | $2.8M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$1.6M to $2.4M
39.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$1.6M to $2.8M
63.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle (Tract 006400) | $1.62M | $1.84M | +13.4% | |
| Seattle (Tract 004101) | $2.04M | $2.29M | +12.3% | |
| Seattle (Tract 007800) | $1.68M | $1.85M | +10.0% | |
| Seattle (Tract 006800) | $1.62M | $1.76M | +8.6% | |
| Seattle (Tract 006300) | $2.04M | $2.17M | +6.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle (Tract 007302) | $908K | $1.11M | +22.2% | |
| Seattle (Tract 004401) | $1.20M | $1.46M | +22.0% | |
| Seattle (Tract 008200) | $825K | $981K | +18.9% | |
| Seattle (Tract 010401) | $819K | $965K | +17.8% | |
| Seattle (Tract 000202) | $809K | $951K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle (Tract 007203) | $501K | $523K | $260K | |
| Seattle (Tract 007502) | $462K | $531K | $244K | |
| Seattle (Tract 007404) | $493K | $535K | $210K | |
| Seattle (Tract 009100) | $449K | $455K | $209K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
