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San Juan, WA · ZIP 98261 · Census Tract 53055960502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$737K
Downside (P10)
$638K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$808K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.10M
+50% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $539K | $522K | $574K | $599K | $696K | $737K | $767K | $794K | $808K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$197,567 | -$215,267 | -$163,167 | -$138,167 | -$41,367 | +$30,420 | +$57,592 | +$70,956 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -26.8% | -29.2% | -22.1% | -18.8% | -5.6% | +4.1% | +7.8% | +9.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $646K | $659K | $638K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $932K | $1.0M | $1.1M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$646K to $932K
37.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$638K to $1.1M
57.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez · Lopez Island · (Tract 9605.2) | $718K | $808K | +12.6% | |
| Orcas | $784K | $922K | +17.6% | |
| San Juan Island | $682K | $726K | +6.6% | |
| San Juan (Tract 880002) | $762K | $666K | -12.6% | |
| San Juan (Tract 720007) | $792K | $691K | -12.7% | |
| San Juan (Tract 000002) | $759K | $652K | -14.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez · Lopez Island · (Tract 9605.2) | $718K | $808K | +12.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960101) | $784K | $922K | +17.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960103) | $896K | $998K | +11.4% | |
| Lopez | $817K | $897K | +9.7% | |
| San Juan Island | $923K | $1.01M | +9.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960102) | $929K | $1.02M | +9.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez · Lopez Island · (Tract 9605.2) | $718K | $808K | $465K | |
| San Juan Island (Tract 960301) | $923K | $1.01M | $550K | |
| Lopez | $817K | $897K | $501K | |
| Orcas (Tract 960101) | $784K | $922K | $482K | |
| San Juan Island (Tract 960400) | $682K | $726K | $441K | |
| Orcas (Tract 960103) | $896K | $998K | $413K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
San Juan, WA · ZIP 98261 · Census Tract 53055960502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$737K
Downside (P10)
$638K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$808K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.10M
+50% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $539K | $522K | $574K | $599K | $696K | $737K | $767K | $794K | $808K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$197,567 | -$215,267 | -$163,167 | -$138,167 | -$41,367 | +$30,420 | +$57,592 | +$70,956 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -26.8% | -29.2% | -22.1% | -18.8% | -5.6% | +4.1% | +7.8% | +9.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $646K | $659K | $638K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $932K | $1.0M | $1.1M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$646K to $932K
37.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$638K to $1.1M
57.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez · Lopez Island · (Tract 9605.2) | $718K | $808K | +12.6% | |
| Orcas | $784K | $922K | +17.6% | |
| San Juan Island | $682K | $726K | +6.6% | |
| San Juan (Tract 880002) | $762K | $666K | -12.6% | |
| San Juan (Tract 720007) | $792K | $691K | -12.7% | |
| San Juan (Tract 000002) | $759K | $652K | -14.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez · Lopez Island · (Tract 9605.2) | $718K | $808K | +12.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960101) | $784K | $922K | +17.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960103) | $896K | $998K | +11.4% | |
| Lopez | $817K | $897K | +9.7% | |
| San Juan Island | $923K | $1.01M | +9.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960102) | $929K | $1.02M | +9.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez · Lopez Island · (Tract 9605.2) | $718K | $808K | $465K | |
| San Juan Island (Tract 960301) | $923K | $1.01M | $550K | |
| Lopez | $817K | $897K | $501K | |
| Orcas (Tract 960101) | $784K | $922K | $482K | |
| San Juan Island (Tract 960400) | $682K | $726K | $441K | |
| Orcas (Tract 960103) | $896K | $998K | $413K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
