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Pierce, WA · Census Tract 53053000004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$904K
Downside (P10)
$367K
-59% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$795K
-12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.51M
+67% by 2030
Base case: -12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -59% to +67%. The model forecasts this with 21% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $904K | $939K | $847K | $776K | $795K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$35,393 | -$56,620 | -$127,594 | -$108,461 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +3.9% | -6.3% | -14.1% | -12.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $630K | $514K | $426K | $367K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.5M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$630K to $1.3M
74.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$367K to $1.5M
143.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000004 | $904K | $795K | -12.0% | |
| Puyallup | $847K | $889K | +4.9% | |
| Gig Harbor Peninsula (Tract 072504) | $919K | $956K | +4.0% | |
| Tacoma | $853K | $885K | +3.8% | |
| Gig Harbor Peninsula (Tract 072405) | $894K | $914K | +2.3% | |
| Gig Harbor Peninsula (Tract 072507) | $899K | $919K | +2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000004 | $904K | $795K | -12.0% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 072309) | $719K | $859K | +19.6% | |
| Puyallup | $535K | $633K | +18.3% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 060700) | $718K | $846K | +17.9% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063401) | $451K | $523K | +15.8% | |
| Alderton | $424K | $490K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000004 | $904K | $795K | $1.14M | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062902) | $396K | $410K | $98K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062600) | $373K | $380K | $96K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062000) | $413K | $422K | $93K | |
| Lakewood | $328K | $323K | $85K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071703) | $285K | $290K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pierce, WA · Census Tract 53053000004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$904K
Downside (P10)
$367K
-59% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$795K
-12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.51M
+67% by 2030
Base case: -12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -59% to +67%. The model forecasts this with 21% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $904K | $939K | $847K | $776K | $795K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$35,393 | -$56,620 | -$127,594 | -$108,461 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +3.9% | -6.3% | -14.1% | -12.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $630K | $514K | $426K | $367K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.5M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$630K to $1.3M
74.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$367K to $1.5M
143.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000004 | $904K | $795K | -12.0% | |
| Puyallup | $847K | $889K | +4.9% | |
| Gig Harbor Peninsula (Tract 072504) | $919K | $956K | +4.0% | |
| Tacoma | $853K | $885K | +3.8% | |
| Gig Harbor Peninsula (Tract 072405) | $894K | $914K | +2.3% | |
| Gig Harbor Peninsula (Tract 072507) | $899K | $919K | +2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000004 | $904K | $795K | -12.0% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 072309) | $719K | $859K | +19.6% | |
| Puyallup | $535K | $633K | +18.3% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 060700) | $718K | $846K | +17.9% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063401) | $451K | $523K | +15.8% | |
| Alderton | $424K | $490K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000004 | $904K | $795K | $1.14M | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062902) | $396K | $410K | $98K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062600) | $373K | $380K | $96K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062000) | $413K | $422K | $93K | |
| Lakewood | $328K | $323K | $85K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071703) | $285K | $290K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
