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Pierce, WA · ZIP 98498 · Census Tract 53053072107 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$508K
Downside (P10)
$426K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$550K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$691K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $221K | $224K | $234K | $249K | $277K | $326K | $354K | $431K | $453K | $490K | $508K | $522K | $541K | $550K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$286,684 | -$283,284 | -$274,084 | -$258,184 | -$230,984 | -$181,384 | -$153,584 | -$76,784 | -$54,984 | -$17,584 | +$14,109 | +$33,865 | +$42,112 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -56.5% | -55.8% | -54.0% | -50.9% | -45.5% | -35.7% | -30.3% | -15.1% | -10.8% | -3.5% | +2.8% | +6.7% | +8.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $442K | $455K | $426K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $559K | $594K | $691K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$442K to $559K
22.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$426K to $691K
48.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakewood · 98498 · (Tract 721.7) | $497K | $550K | +10.5% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071413) | $510K | $571K | +11.9% | |
| Elk Plain | $509K | $568K | +11.7% | |
| Gig Harbor Peninsula | $508K | $551K | +8.6% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 072112) | $515K | $557K | +8.2% | |
| Puyallup | $519K | $552K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakewood · 98498 · (Tract 721.7) | $497K | $550K | +10.5% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 060700) | $698K | $846K | +21.2% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 072309) | $712K | $859K | +20.7% | |
| Parkland | $481K | $580K | +20.5% | |
| Fircrest | $594K | $716K | +20.5% | |
| Puyallup | $527K | $633K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakewood · 98498 · (Tract 721.7) | $497K | $550K | $265K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063200) | $414K | $457K | $191K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062300) | $397K | $440K | $184K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071703) | $281K | $301K | $175K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063000) | $378K | $436K | $170K | |
| Parkland | $382K | $401K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pierce, WA · ZIP 98498 · Census Tract 53053072107 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$508K
Downside (P10)
$426K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$550K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$691K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $221K | $224K | $234K | $249K | $277K | $326K | $354K | $431K | $453K | $490K | $508K | $522K | $541K | $550K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$286,684 | -$283,284 | -$274,084 | -$258,184 | -$230,984 | -$181,384 | -$153,584 | -$76,784 | -$54,984 | -$17,584 | +$14,109 | +$33,865 | +$42,112 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -56.5% | -55.8% | -54.0% | -50.9% | -45.5% | -35.7% | -30.3% | -15.1% | -10.8% | -3.5% | +2.8% | +6.7% | +8.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $442K | $455K | $426K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $559K | $594K | $691K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$442K to $559K
22.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$426K to $691K
48.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakewood · 98498 · (Tract 721.7) | $497K | $550K | +10.5% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071413) | $510K | $571K | +11.9% | |
| Elk Plain | $509K | $568K | +11.7% | |
| Gig Harbor Peninsula | $508K | $551K | +8.6% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 072112) | $515K | $557K | +8.2% | |
| Puyallup | $519K | $552K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakewood · 98498 · (Tract 721.7) | $497K | $550K | +10.5% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 060700) | $698K | $846K | +21.2% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 072309) | $712K | $859K | +20.7% | |
| Parkland | $481K | $580K | +20.5% | |
| Fircrest | $594K | $716K | +20.5% | |
| Puyallup | $527K | $633K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakewood · 98498 · (Tract 721.7) | $497K | $550K | $265K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063200) | $414K | $457K | $191K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062300) | $397K | $440K | $184K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071703) | $281K | $301K | $175K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063000) | $378K | $436K | $170K | |
| Parkland | $382K | $401K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
