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Mason, WA · ZIP 98546 · Census Tract 53045961200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$467K
Downside (P10)
$412K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$501K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$684K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $212K | $196K | $199K | $239K | $272K | $290K | $305K | $386K | $443K | $462K | $467K | $478K | $494K | $501K | $485K |
| YoY Change | -7.5% | +1.7% | +20.2% | +13.7% | +6.3% | +5.2% | +26.6% | +14.9% | +4.4% | +1.0% | +2.4% | +3.2% | +1.5% | -3.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $429K | $427K | $412K | $425K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $544K | $642K | $684K | $549K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$429K to $544K
24.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$425K to $549K
25.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timber Lake-Harstine Island area | $464K | $501K | +8.1% | |
| Union-Grapeview | $492K | $548K | +11.4% | |
| West Mason (Tract 960100) | $507K | $565K | +11.3% | |
| Shelton | $448K | $466K | +4.0% | |
| West Mason (Tract 960202) | $486K | $496K | +2.0% | |
| Belfair-Tahuya | $503K | $511K | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timber Lake-Harstine Island area | $464K | $501K | +8.1% | |
| Shelton (Tract 960800) | $383K | $437K | +14.0% | |
| Belfair-Tahuya | $346K | $391K | +13.0% | |
| Shelton (Tract 960600) | $372K | $416K | +11.7% | |
| Union-Grapeview | $492K | $548K | +11.4% | |
| West Mason | $507K | $565K | +11.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timber Lake-Harstine Island area | $464K | $501K | $271K | |
| Union-Grapeview | $415K | $432K | $189K | |
| West Mason | $329K | $355K | $167K | |
| Timber Lake-Harstine Island | $334K | $348K | $146K | |
| Shelton | $312K | $327K | $145K | |
| Skokomish Reservation | $208K | $212K | $127K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.