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Cowlitz, WA · ZIP 98649 · Census Tract 53015001800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$355K
Downside (P10)
$280K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$364K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$489K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $157K | $166K | $182K | $209K | $236K | $249K | $275K | $286K | $339K | $355K | $355K | $376K | $364K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$194,188 | -$198,588 | -$189,588 | -$172,988 | -$146,788 | -$119,088 | -$106,588 | -$80,088 | -$69,488 | -$16,288 | -$22 | +$20,914 | +$8,525 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -54.6% | -55.9% | -53.3% | -48.7% | -41.3% | -33.5% | -30.0% | -22.5% | -19.6% | -4.6% | -0.0% | +5.9% | +2.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $298K | $285K | $280K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $420K | $458K | $489K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$298K to $420K
34.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$280K to $489K
57.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Cowlitz | $351K | $364K | +3.6% | |
| Lexington | $363K | $401K | +10.3% | |
| Longview (Tract 000602) | $375K | $413K | +10.1% | |
| Longview (Tract 002100) | $349K | $370K | +6.1% | |
| Longview (Tract 000601) | $346K | $365K | +5.4% | |
| Longview-Kelso | $358K | $366K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Cowlitz | $351K | $364K | +3.6% | |
| Castle Rock | $479K | $560K | +16.9% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000902) | $426K | $475K | +11.6% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000705) | $407K | $454K | +11.4% | |
| Rose Valley | $439K | $487K | +10.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Cowlitz | $351K | $364K | $209K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000703) | $218K | $228K | $155K | |
| Longview | $295K | $323K | $145K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 001300) | $295K | $303K | $144K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 001100) | $286K | $312K | $136K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Cowlitz, WA · ZIP 98649 · Census Tract 53015001800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$355K
Downside (P10)
$280K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$364K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$489K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $157K | $166K | $182K | $209K | $236K | $249K | $275K | $286K | $339K | $355K | $355K | $376K | $364K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$194,188 | -$198,588 | -$189,588 | -$172,988 | -$146,788 | -$119,088 | -$106,588 | -$80,088 | -$69,488 | -$16,288 | -$22 | +$20,914 | +$8,525 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -54.6% | -55.9% | -53.3% | -48.7% | -41.3% | -33.5% | -30.0% | -22.5% | -19.6% | -4.6% | -0.0% | +5.9% | +2.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $298K | $285K | $280K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $420K | $458K | $489K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$298K to $420K
34.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$280K to $489K
57.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Cowlitz | $351K | $364K | +3.6% | |
| Lexington | $363K | $401K | +10.3% | |
| Longview (Tract 000602) | $375K | $413K | +10.1% | |
| Longview (Tract 002100) | $349K | $370K | +6.1% | |
| Longview (Tract 000601) | $346K | $365K | +5.4% | |
| Longview-Kelso | $358K | $366K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Cowlitz | $351K | $364K | +3.6% | |
| Castle Rock | $479K | $560K | +16.9% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000902) | $426K | $475K | +11.6% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000705) | $407K | $454K | +11.4% | |
| Rose Valley | $439K | $487K | +10.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Cowlitz | $351K | $364K | $209K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000703) | $218K | $228K | $155K | |
| Longview | $295K | $323K | $145K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 001300) | $295K | $303K | $144K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 001100) | $286K | $312K | $136K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
