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Cowlitz, WA · ZIP 98611 · Census Tract 53015002003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$436K
Downside (P10)
$382K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$479K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$597K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $212K | $249K | $305K | $373K | $426K | $436K | $447K | $474K | $479K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$223,880 | -$187,480 | -$130,780 | -$63,180 | -$9,680 | +$10,637 | +$38,493 | +$43,188 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.4% | -43.0% | -30.0% | -14.5% | -2.2% | +2.4% | +8.8% | +9.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $377K | $400K | $382K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $556K | $570K | $597K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$377K to $556K
40.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$382K to $597K
44.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3) | $435K | $479K | +10.3% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000902) | $426K | $475K | +11.6% | |
| Rose Valley | $439K | $487K | +10.8% | |
| Kalama | $451K | $488K | +8.2% | |
| Longview | $428K | $455K | +6.2% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000801) | $455K | $480K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3) | $435K | $479K | +10.3% | |
| Castle Rock | $479K | $560K | +16.9% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000902) | $426K | $475K | +11.6% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000705) | $407K | $454K | +11.4% | |
| Rose Valley | $439K | $487K | +10.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3) | $435K | $479K | $215K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000703) | $218K | $228K | $155K | |
| Longview | $295K | $323K | $145K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 001300) | $295K | $303K | $144K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 001100) | $286K | $312K | $136K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Cowlitz, WA · ZIP 98611 · Census Tract 53015002003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$436K
Downside (P10)
$382K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$479K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$597K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $212K | $249K | $305K | $373K | $426K | $436K | $447K | $474K | $479K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$223,880 | -$187,480 | -$130,780 | -$63,180 | -$9,680 | +$10,637 | +$38,493 | +$43,188 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.4% | -43.0% | -30.0% | -14.5% | -2.2% | +2.4% | +8.8% | +9.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $377K | $400K | $382K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $556K | $570K | $597K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$377K to $556K
40.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$382K to $597K
44.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3) | $435K | $479K | +10.3% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000902) | $426K | $475K | +11.6% | |
| Rose Valley | $439K | $487K | +10.8% | |
| Kalama | $451K | $488K | +8.2% | |
| Longview | $428K | $455K | +6.2% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000801) | $455K | $480K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3) | $435K | $479K | +10.3% | |
| Castle Rock | $479K | $560K | +16.9% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000902) | $426K | $475K | +11.6% | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000705) | $407K | $454K | +11.4% | |
| Rose Valley | $439K | $487K | +10.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3) | $435K | $479K | $215K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 000703) | $218K | $228K | $155K | |
| Longview | $295K | $323K | $145K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 001300) | $295K | $303K | $144K | |
| Longview-Kelso (Tract 001100) | $286K | $312K | $136K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
