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York, VA · ZIP 23692 · Census Tract 51199050303 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$420K
Downside (P10)
$328K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$455K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$609K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $297K | $305K | $304K | $311K | $314K | $332K | $312K | $358K | $411K | $418K | $420K | $435K | $444K | $455K | $432K |
| YoY Change | +2.8% | -0.4% | +2.4% | +1.1% | +5.5% | -5.9% | +14.7% | +14.8% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +3.6% | +2.0% | +2.6% | -5.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $365K | $350K | $328K | $386K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $528K | $584K | $609K | $486K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$365K to $528K
37.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$386K to $486K
23.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · Yorktown · (Tract 503.3) | $419K | $455K | +8.5% | |
| 2 (Tract 050203) | $457K | $513K | +12.3% | |
| 3 | $434K | $480K | +10.6% | |
| 2 (Tract 050305) | $458K | $502K | +9.6% | |
| 1 (Tract 051000) | $382K | $418K | +9.3% | |
| 1 (Tract 051100) | $424K | $442K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · Yorktown · (Tract 503.3) | $419K | $455K | +8.5% | |
| 2 (Tract 050203) | $457K | $513K | +12.3% | |
| 5 | $242K | $270K | +11.8% | |
| 3 | $434K | $480K | +10.6% | |
| 2 (Tract 050305) | $458K | $502K | +9.6% | |
| 3 area | $360K | $394K | +9.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · Yorktown · (Tract 503.3) | $419K | $455K | $282K | |
| 1 (Tract 051100) | $424K | $442K | $216K | |
| 1 (Tract 050900) | $341K | $354K | $191K | |
| 1 (Tract 051000) | $382K | $418K | $191K | |
| 3 | $332K | $352K | $173K | |
| 5 | $242K | $270K | $164K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.