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Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23462 · Census Tract 51810046011 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$285K
Downside (P10)
$247K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$306K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$415K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $199K | $198K | $198K | $210K | $215K | $211K | $216K | $244K | $257K | $265K | $285K | $288K | $296K | $306K |
| YoY Change | -0.7% | +0.5% | +6.0% | +2.4% | -2.2% | +2.4% | +13.2% | +5.5% | +3.1% | +7.2% | +1.1% | +2.8% | +3.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $253K | $247K | $247K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $337K | $389K | $415K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$253K to $337K
29.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$247K to $415K
54.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040600) | $279K | $322K | +15.4% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040403) | $280K | $318K | +13.7% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044202) | $279K | $307K | +9.7% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040801) | $276K | $286K | +3.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043005) | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045415) | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043006) | $482K | $559K | +16.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040600) | $279K | $322K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045405) | $270K | $299K | $151K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041002) | $240K | $270K | $143K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | $112K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040405) | $186K | $194K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.