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Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23452 · Census Tract 51810042801 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$305K
Downside (P10)
$261K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$329K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$465K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $194K | $197K | $195K | $202K | $217K | $220K | $224K | $263K | $280K | $295K | $305K | $315K | $317K | $329K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$111,043 | -$108,043 | -$109,643 | -$102,643 | -$87,643 | -$84,643 | -$80,643 | -$41,743 | -$24,443 | -$10,243 | +$10,334 | +$11,870 | +$23,751 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.4% | -35.4% | -36.0% | -33.7% | -28.8% | -27.8% | -26.5% | -13.7% | -8.0% | -3.4% | +3.4% | +3.9% | +7.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $273K | $265K | $261K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $375K | $402K | $465K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$273K to $375K
32.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$261K to $465K
61.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23452 · (Tract 428.1) | $300K | $329K | +9.4% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041003) | $301K | $342K | +13.6% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044807) | $311K | $347K | +11.8% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040802) | $300K | $327K | +8.8% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041004) | $305K | $329K | +7.9% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046224) | $300K | $322K | +7.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23452 · (Tract 428.1) | $300K | $329K | +9.4% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043005) | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046211) | $406K | $480K | +18.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045415) | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046009) | $371K | $432K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23452 · (Tract 428.1) | $300K | $329K | $203K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045810) | $245K | $264K | $135K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046013) | $254K | $261K | $118K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | $112K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040405) | $186K | $194K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23452 · Census Tract 51810042801 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$305K
Downside (P10)
$261K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$329K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$465K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $194K | $197K | $195K | $202K | $217K | $220K | $224K | $263K | $280K | $295K | $305K | $315K | $317K | $329K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$111,043 | -$108,043 | -$109,643 | -$102,643 | -$87,643 | -$84,643 | -$80,643 | -$41,743 | -$24,443 | -$10,243 | +$10,334 | +$11,870 | +$23,751 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.4% | -35.4% | -36.0% | -33.7% | -28.8% | -27.8% | -26.5% | -13.7% | -8.0% | -3.4% | +3.4% | +3.9% | +7.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $273K | $265K | $261K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $375K | $402K | $465K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$273K to $375K
32.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$261K to $465K
61.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23452 · (Tract 428.1) | $300K | $329K | +9.4% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041003) | $301K | $342K | +13.6% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044807) | $311K | $347K | +11.8% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040802) | $300K | $327K | +8.8% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041004) | $305K | $329K | +7.9% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046224) | $300K | $322K | +7.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23452 · (Tract 428.1) | $300K | $329K | +9.4% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043005) | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046211) | $406K | $480K | +18.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045415) | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046009) | $371K | $432K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23452 · (Tract 428.1) | $300K | $329K | $203K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045810) | $245K | $264K | $135K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046013) | $254K | $261K | $118K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | $112K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040405) | $186K | $194K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
