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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23462 · Census Tract 51810040405 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$187K
Downside (P10)
$162K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$194K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$262K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $150K | $158K | $171K | $187K | $181K | $187K | $190K | $195K | $194K |
| YoY Change | +5.1% | +8.4% | +9.4% | -3.3% | +3.5% | +1.6% | +2.6% | -0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $167K | $165K | $162K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $230K | $251K | $262K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$167K to $230K
33.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$162K to $262K
51.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23462 · (Tract 404.5) | $186K | $194K | +4.4% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045606) | $218K | $250K | +14.6% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041002) | $240K | $270K | +12.4% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | +9.9% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045810) | $245K | $264K | +7.6% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | +4.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23462 · (Tract 404.5) | $186K | $194K | +4.4% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043005) | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046211) | $406K | $480K | +18.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045415) | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046009) | $371K | $432K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23462 · (Tract 404.5) | $186K | $194K | $100K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041002) | $240K | $270K | $143K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045810) | $245K | $264K | $135K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046013) | $254K | $261K | $118K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | $112K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.