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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Stafford, VA · ZIP 22556 · Census Tract 51179010205 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$503K
Downside (P10)
$404K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$530K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$768K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $315K | $324K | $342K | $349K | $353K | $355K | $366K | $426K | $451K | $490K | $503K | $526K | $517K | $530K |
| YoY Change | +2.6% | +5.7% | +1.9% | +1.3% | +0.6% | +3.1% | +16.4% | +5.8% | +8.5% | +2.8% | +4.5% | -1.7% | +2.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $435K | $417K | $404K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $606K | $676K | $768K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$435K to $606K
32.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$404K to $768K
68.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Hill · Stafford · (Tract 102.5) | $491K | $530K | +7.9% | |
| Hartwood (Tract 010307) | $520K | $588K | +13.2% | |
| Garrisonville (Tract 010211) | $517K | $562K | +8.8% | |
| Hartwood (Tract 010218) | $502K | $527K | +4.9% | |
| Aquia | $497K | $507K | +1.9% | |
| Garrisonville (Tract 010212) | $522K | $520K | -0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Hill · Stafford · (Tract 102.5) | $491K | $530K | +7.9% | |
| Griffis-Widewater (Tract 010216) | $372K | $441K | +18.7% | |
| Griffis-Widewater (Tract 010108) | $460K | $533K | +15.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010202) | $482K | $554K | +14.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010219) | $591K | $676K | +14.5% | |
| Hartwood | $583K | $661K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Hill · Stafford · (Tract 102.5) | $491K | $530K | $364K | |
| Hartwood area | $415K | $459K | $256K | |
| Rock Hill | $450K | $486K | $248K | |
| Griffis-Widewater (Tract 010216) | $372K | $441K | $227K | |
| Griffis-Widewater (Tract 010108) | $460K | $533K | $221K | |
| George Washington | $398K | $430K | $218K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.