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Stafford, VA · ZIP 22554 · Census Tract 51179010216 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$383K
Downside (P10)
$333K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$441K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$561K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $250K | $270K | $291K | $333K | $367K | $383K | $393K | $418K | $441K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$133,154 | -$112,854 | -$91,854 | -$50,354 | -$16,354 | +$10,249 | +$35,204 | +$58,278 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.8% | -29.5% | -24.0% | -13.2% | -4.3% | +2.7% | +9.2% | +15.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $337K | $343K | $333K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $461K | $510K | $561K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$337K to $461K
31.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$333K to $561K
51.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 102.16) | $372K | $441K | +18.7% | |
| Garrisonville | $438K | $487K | +11.3% | |
| Hartwood area | $415K | $459K | +10.7% | |
| George Washington (Tract 010406) | $440K | $484K | +10.0% | |
| George Washington (Tract 010306) | $398K | $430K | +7.9% | |
| George Washington (Tract 010502) | $385K | $396K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 102.16) | $372K | $441K | +18.7% | |
| Griffis-Widewater | $460K | $533K | +15.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010202) | $482K | $554K | +14.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010219) | $591K | $676K | +14.5% | |
| Hartwood (Tract 010308) | $583K | $661K | +13.3% | |
| Hartwood (Tract 010307) | $520K | $588K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 102.16) | $372K | $441K | $227K | |
| George Washington (Tract 010406) | $440K | $484K | $256K | |
| Hartwood area | $415K | $459K | $256K | |
| Rock Hill | $450K | $486K | $248K | |
| Griffis-Widewater | $460K | $533K | $221K | |
| George Washington (Tract 010306) | $398K | $430K | $218K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Stafford, VA · ZIP 22554 · Census Tract 51179010216 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$383K
Downside (P10)
$333K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$441K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$561K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $250K | $270K | $291K | $333K | $367K | $383K | $393K | $418K | $441K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$133,154 | -$112,854 | -$91,854 | -$50,354 | -$16,354 | +$10,249 | +$35,204 | +$58,278 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.8% | -29.5% | -24.0% | -13.2% | -4.3% | +2.7% | +9.2% | +15.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $337K | $343K | $333K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $461K | $510K | $561K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$337K to $461K
31.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$333K to $561K
51.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 102.16) | $372K | $441K | +18.7% | |
| Garrisonville | $438K | $487K | +11.3% | |
| Hartwood area | $415K | $459K | +10.7% | |
| George Washington (Tract 010406) | $440K | $484K | +10.0% | |
| George Washington (Tract 010306) | $398K | $430K | +7.9% | |
| George Washington (Tract 010502) | $385K | $396K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 102.16) | $372K | $441K | +18.7% | |
| Griffis-Widewater | $460K | $533K | +15.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010202) | $482K | $554K | +14.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010219) | $591K | $676K | +14.5% | |
| Hartwood (Tract 010308) | $583K | $661K | +13.3% | |
| Hartwood (Tract 010307) | $520K | $588K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 102.16) | $372K | $441K | $227K | |
| George Washington (Tract 010406) | $440K | $484K | $256K | |
| Hartwood area | $415K | $459K | $256K | |
| Rock Hill | $450K | $486K | $248K | |
| Griffis-Widewater | $460K | $533K | $221K | |
| George Washington (Tract 010306) | $398K | $430K | $218K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
