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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Stafford, VA · ZIP 22554 · Census Tract 51179010107 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$480K
Downside (P10)
$416K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$528K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$729K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $338K | $329K | $335K | $339K | $338K | $345K | $360K | $424K | $446K | $462K | $480K | $485K | $508K | $528K |
| YoY Change | -2.6% | +2.0% | +1.0% | -0.3% | +2.2% | +4.4% | +17.6% | +5.1% | +3.7% | +3.8% | +1.0% | +4.9% | +3.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $408K | $418K | $416K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $591K | $665K | $729K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$408K to $591K
37.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$416K to $729K
59.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 101.7) | $471K | $528K | +11.9% | |
| Griffis-Widewater | $460K | $533K | +15.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010202) | $482K | $554K | +14.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010205) | $491K | $530K | +7.9% | |
| Hartwood | $502K | $527K | +4.9% | |
| Aquia | $497K | $507K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 101.7) | $471K | $528K | +11.9% | |
| Griffis-Widewater (Tract 010216) | $372K | $441K | +18.7% | |
| Griffis-Widewater (Tract 010108) | $460K | $533K | +15.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010202) | $482K | $554K | +14.9% | |
| Rock Hill (Tract 010219) | $591K | $676K | +14.5% | |
| Hartwood | $583K | $661K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffis-Widewater · Stafford · (Tract 101.7) | $471K | $528K | $312K | |
| Hartwood area | $415K | $459K | $256K | |
| Rock Hill | $450K | $486K | $248K | |
| Griffis-Widewater (Tract 010216) | $372K | $441K | $227K | |
| Griffis-Widewater (Tract 010108) | $460K | $533K | $221K | |
| George Washington | $398K | $430K | $218K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.