What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51153900301 in Occoquan?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $414,336 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 3.7%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51153900301 in Occoquan?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $414,336 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 3.7%.

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Parcel 51153900301 (Occoquan) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51153900301, Occoquan Home Price Forecast

Prince William, VA · ZIP 22192 · Census Tract 51153900301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$414K

Downside (P10)

$346K

-17% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$430K

+4% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$561K

+35% by 2030

Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$334K	$347K	$367K	$350K	$408K	$414K	$420K	$434K	$430K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$80,236	-$67,536	-$47,836	-$64,736	-$6,236		+$5,561	+$19,428	+$15,234
Growth % vs 2026	-19.4%	-16.3%	-11.5%	-15.6%	-1.5%		+1.3%	+4.7%	+3.7%
Downside (P10)							$345K	$341K	$346K
Upside (P90)							$484K	$528K	$561K

Forecast Confidence

72%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$345K to $484K

33.2% of median

Long-horizon band

$346K to $561K

50.1% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +3.7% · Spread: 50%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51153900301, Occoquan on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).