What is the home price forecast for Tract 011723?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 011723 median home values at $493,187 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -1.0%.

How confident is the Tract 011723 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $271,819 (downside) to $838,980 (upside), with a spread of 116% of median.

What is the home price forecast for Tract 011723?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 011723 median home values at $493,187 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -1.0%.

How confident is the Tract 011723 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $271,819 (downside) to $838,980 (upside), with a spread of 116% of median.

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Tract 011723 Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Tract 011723 Home Price Forecast

Prince Edward, VA · Census Tract 51147011723 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$493K

Downside (P10)

$272K

-45% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$488K

-1% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$839K

+70% by 2030

Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -45% to +70%. The model forecasts this with 36% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$493K	$520K	$489K	$467K	$488K
Growth $ vs 2026		+$26,930	-$4,198	-$25,890	-$5,121
Growth % vs 2026		+5.5%	-0.9%	-5.2%	-1.0%
Downside (P10)		$360K	$315K	$275K	$272K
Upside (P90)		$769K	$766K	$810K	$839K

Location

Tract 011723 on map

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Forecast Confidence

36%

Low Confidence

The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.

Near-term band

$360K to $769K

78.6% of median

Long-horizon band

$272K to $839K

116.2% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: roughly flat5yr expected: -1.0% · Spread: 116%

·Near-term values look stable, but the model expects gradual softening over the longer horizon.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 011723	$493K	$488K	-1.0%
Prince Edward (Tract 040723)	$489K	$711K	+45.4%
Prince Edward (Tract 012269)	$493K	$590K	+19.6%
Prince Edward (Tract 011626)	$487K	$568K	+16.6%
Prince Edward (Tract 011969)	$498K	$577K	+15.9%
Prince Edward (Tract 008121)	$491K	$536K	+9.2%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 011723	$493K	$488K	-1.0%
Prince Edward (Tract 045401)	$486K	$797K	+63.9%
Prince Edward (Tract 045485)	$472K	$720K	+52.8%
Prince Edward (Tract 045142)	$486K	$724K	+48.9%
Prince Edward (Tract 040723)	$489K	$711K	+45.4%
Prince Edward (Tract 000828)	$440K	$621K	+41.1%

Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).