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Norfolk, VA · ZIP 23503 · Census Tract 51710000100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$357K
Downside (P10)
$301K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$382K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$535K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $230K | $196K | $193K | $196K | $197K | $210K | $254K | $276K | $300K | $354K | $357K | $365K | $368K | $382K |
| YoY Change | -14.9% | -1.2% | +1.2% | +0.5% | +6.9% | +21.0% | +8.6% | +8.7% | +17.8% | +0.9% | +2.2% | +0.9% | +3.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $315K | $318K | $301K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $452K | $485K | $535K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$315K to $452K
37.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$301K to $535K
61.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norfolk · 23503 · (Tract 1) | $356K | $382K | +7.4% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 001400) | $362K | $414K | +14.3% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 006601) | $367K | $401K | +9.2% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 000400) | $354K | $382K | +7.8% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 006605) | $357K | $374K | +4.7% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 003000) | $345K | $353K | +2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norfolk · 23503 · (Tract 1) | $356K | $382K | +7.4% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 004001) | $595K | $699K | +17.5% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 001300) | $240K | $280K | +16.7% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 007002) | $340K | $393K | +15.4% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 004300) | $278K | $321K | +15.3% | |
| Norfolk (Tract 001200) | $548K | $632K | +15.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norfolk · 23503 · (Tract 1) | $356K | $382K | $234K | |
| Norfolk (Tract 006100) | $222K | $222K | $110K | |
| Norfolk (Tract 003200) | $206K | $226K | $110K | |
| Norfolk (Tract 006200) | $238K | $260K | $107K | |
| Norfolk (Tract 006901) | $225K | $241K | $92K | |
| Norfolk (Tract 003501) | $147K | $164K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.