What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51125950101 in South area?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $286,573 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 7.4%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51125950101 in South area?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $286,573 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 7.4%.

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Parcel 51125950101 (South area) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51125950101, South area Home Price Forecast

Nelson, VA · ZIP 24553 · Census Tract 51125950101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$287K

Downside (P10)

$239K

-17% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$308K

+7% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$403K

+41% by 2030

Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$121K	$126K	$164K	$222K	$292K	$287K	$298K	$298K	$308K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$165,473	-$160,473	-$122,273	-$64,573	+$5,827		+$11,251	+$11,490	+$21,166
Growth % vs 2026	-57.7%	-56.0%	-42.7%	-22.5%	+2.0%		+3.9%	+4.0%	+7.4%
Downside (P10)							$255K	$249K	$239K
Upside (P90)							$342K	$375K	$403K

Forecast Confidence

71%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$255K to $342K

29.4% of median

Long-horizon band

$239K to $403K

53.2% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +7.4% · Spread: 53%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51125950101, South area on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).