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Lynchburg, VA · ZIP 24502 · Census Tract 51680000802 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$187K
Downside (P10)
$168K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$213K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$288K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $119K | $114K | $121K | $122K | $129K | $127K | $129K | $160K | $164K | $181K | $187K | $192K | $203K | $213K |
| YoY Change | -4.3% | +6.0% | +1.2% | +5.8% | -1.9% | +1.8% | +23.7% | +2.5% | +10.5% | +3.7% | +2.4% | +5.9% | +4.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $170K | $175K | $168K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $241K | $262K | $288K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$170K to $241K
37.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$168K to $288K
56.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynchburg | $185K | $213K | +15.2% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000801) | $171K | $196K | +15.0% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 001603) | $219K | $240K | +9.6% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000901) | $211K | $225K | +6.3% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 001000) | $178K | $184K | +3.5% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000204) | $226K | $232K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynchburg | $185K | $213K | +15.2% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000300) | $299K | $346K | +15.5% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000801) | $171K | $196K | +15.0% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000500) | $272K | $308K | +13.0% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000700) | $109K | $123K | +12.4% | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000400) | $141K | $157K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynchburg | $185K | $213K | $119K | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 001900) | $115K | $128K | $83K | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000600) | $147K | $155K | $83K | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 001400) | $115K | $124K | $78K | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 000700) | $109K | $123K | $72K | |
| Lynchburg (Tract 001100) | $106K | $118K | $60K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.