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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Loudoun, VA · ZIP 20117 · Census Tract 51107610800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$938K
Downside (P10)
$783K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.03M
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.51M
+61% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $585K | $596K | $595K | $627K | $680K | $662K | $729K | $837K | $935K | $918K | $938K | $956K | $990K | $1.0M |
| YoY Change | +1.9% | -0.1% | +5.3% | +8.5% | -2.6% | +10.0% | +14.8% | +11.8% | -1.8% | +2.2% | +1.9% | +3.5% | +3.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $831K | $803K | $783K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$831K to $1.13M
30.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$783K to $1.51M
70.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Ridge · Middleburg · (Tract 6108) | $925K | $1.03M | +11.1% | |
| Lowes Island | $904K | $1.01M | +11.4% | |
| Lansdowne | $960K | $1.04M | +8.5% | |
| Catoctin (Tract 610703) | $921K | $997K | +8.2% | |
| Blue Ridge | $936K | $1.01M | +8.2% | |
| Catoctin (Tract 610300) | $930K | $982K | +5.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Ridge · Middleburg · (Tract 6108) | $925K | $1.03M | +11.1% | |
| Leesburg area | $727K | $851K | +17.1% | |
| Ashburn | $720K | $838K | +16.4% | |
| Lowes Island | $699K | $800K | +14.5% | |
| Dulles | $617K | $705K | +14.3% | |
| Leesburg | $694K | $791K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Ridge · Middleburg · (Tract 6108) | $925K | $1.03M | $729K | |
| Broad Run | $498K | $540K | $276K | |
| Sterling (Tract 611601) | $517K | $531K | $272K | |
| Sterling (Tract 611602) | $380K | $404K | $237K | |
| Leesburg | $406K | $433K | $235K | |
| Brambleton | $459K | $514K | $235K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.