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Loudoun, VA · ZIP 20147 · Census Tract 51107611019 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$806K
Downside (P10)
$686K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$851K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.13M
+40% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $504K | $528K | $535K | $542K | $566K | $565K | $610K | $723K | $775K | $803K | $806K | $815K | $857K | $851K |
| YoY Change | +4.8% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +4.4% | -0.1% | +7.9% | +18.6% | +7.1% | +3.7% | +0.4% | +1.1% | +5.1% | -0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $740K | $720K | $686K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$740K to $1.08M
41.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$686K to $1.13M
51.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashburn · 20147 · (Tract 6110.19) | $820K | $851K | +3.8% | |
| Broad Run | $774K | $865K | +11.7% | |
| Dulles | $821K | $901K | +9.7% | |
| Ashburn (Tract 611006) | $787K | $848K | +7.8% | |
| South Riding | $815K | $870K | +6.8% | |
| Ashburn (Tract 611013) | $809K | $841K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashburn · 20147 · (Tract 6110.19) | $820K | $851K | +3.8% | |
| Leesburg area | $727K | $851K | +17.1% | |
| Ashburn | $720K | $838K | +16.4% | |
| Lowes Island | $699K | $800K | +14.5% | |
| Dulles | $617K | $705K | +14.3% | |
| Leesburg | $694K | $791K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashburn · 20147 · (Tract 6110.19) | $820K | $851K | $442K | |
| Broad Run | $498K | $540K | $276K | |
| Sterling (Tract 611601) | $517K | $531K | $272K | |
| Sterling (Tract 611602) | $380K | $404K | $237K | |
| Leesburg | $406K | $433K | $235K | |
| Brambleton | $459K | $514K | $235K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.