King George, VA · ZIP 22485 · Census Tract 51099040200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$431K
Downside (P10)
$343K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$476K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$673K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +56%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar King George markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $284K | $295K | $296K | $300K | $305K | $321K | $324K | $357K | $377K | $412K | $431K | $449K | $467K | $476K |
| YoY Change | +3.8% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +1.7% | +5.1% | +0.9% | +10.3% | +5.5% | +9.3% | +4.7% | +4.0% | +4.2% | +1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $379K | $368K | $343K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $529K | $585K | $673K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$379K to $529K
33.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$343K to $673K
69.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shiloh area | $418K | $476K | +14.0% | |
| Shiloh | $435K | $461K | +6.0% | |
| James Madison | $441K | $486K | +10.3% | |
| James Madison | $442K | $467K | +5.8% | |
| James Monroe | $413K | $453K | +9.9% | |
| Dahlgren area | $475K | $510K | +7.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shiloh area | $418K | $476K | +14.0% | |
| James Madison | $441K | $486K | +10.3% | |
| James Monroe | $413K | $453K | +9.9% | |
| Dahlgren area | $475K | $510K | +7.3% | |
| Shiloh | $435K | $461K | +6.0% | |
| James Madison | $442K | $467K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shiloh area | $418K | $476K | $330K | |
| James Madison | $442K | $467K | $218K | |
| James Monroe | $413K | $453K | $222K | |
| James Madison | $441K | $486K | $280K | |
| Dahlgren area | $475K | $510K | $280K | |
| Shiloh | $435K | $461K | $321K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.