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Henrico, VA · ZIP 23231 · Census Tract 51087201602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$373K
Downside (P10)
$314K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$398K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$545K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $221K | $223K | $228K | $234K | $242K | $252K | $273K | $316K | $347K | $361K | $373K | $374K | $392K | $398K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$152,142 | -$150,142 | -$144,942 | -$138,542 | -$130,442 | -$120,842 | -$99,542 | -$57,242 | -$25,542 | -$12,242 | +$703 | +$19,284 | +$24,835 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -40.8% | -40.3% | -38.9% | -37.2% | -35.0% | -32.4% | -26.7% | -15.4% | -6.9% | -3.3% | +0.2% | +5.2% | +6.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $328K | $319K | $314K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $448K | $497K | $545K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$328K to $448K
32.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$314K to $545K
58.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varina · Henrico · (Tract 2016.2) | $368K | $398K | +8.2% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200137) | $372K | $428K | +15.0% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200152) | $391K | $424K | +8.5% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200136) | $392K | $420K | +7.3% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200153) | $392K | $401K | +2.3% | |
| Brookland | $384K | $375K | -2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varina · Henrico · (Tract 2016.2) | $368K | $398K | +8.2% | |
| East Highland Park | $213K | $256K | +20.5% | |
| Dumbarton | $264K | $310K | +17.3% | |
| Short Pump (Tract 200143) | $640K | $745K | +16.4% | |
| Three Chopt area | $395K | $459K | +16.3% | |
| Short Pump (Tract 200141) | $522K | $605K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varina · Henrico · (Tract 2016.2) | $368K | $398K | $231K | |
| East Highland Park (Tract 201003) | $213K | $256K | $115K | |
| Fairfield (Tract 200806) | $218K | $234K | $113K | |
| East Highland Park (Tract 201002) | $217K | $232K | $104K | |
| Fairfield (Tract 200805) | $194K | $215K | $100K | |
| Highland Springs | $211K | $219K | $98K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Henrico, VA · ZIP 23231 · Census Tract 51087201602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$373K
Downside (P10)
$314K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$398K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$545K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $221K | $223K | $228K | $234K | $242K | $252K | $273K | $316K | $347K | $361K | $373K | $374K | $392K | $398K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$152,142 | -$150,142 | -$144,942 | -$138,542 | -$130,442 | -$120,842 | -$99,542 | -$57,242 | -$25,542 | -$12,242 | +$703 | +$19,284 | +$24,835 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -40.8% | -40.3% | -38.9% | -37.2% | -35.0% | -32.4% | -26.7% | -15.4% | -6.9% | -3.3% | +0.2% | +5.2% | +6.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $328K | $319K | $314K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $448K | $497K | $545K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$328K to $448K
32.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$314K to $545K
58.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varina · Henrico · (Tract 2016.2) | $368K | $398K | +8.2% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200137) | $372K | $428K | +15.0% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200152) | $391K | $424K | +8.5% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200136) | $392K | $420K | +7.3% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200153) | $392K | $401K | +2.3% | |
| Brookland | $384K | $375K | -2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varina · Henrico · (Tract 2016.2) | $368K | $398K | +8.2% | |
| East Highland Park | $213K | $256K | +20.5% | |
| Dumbarton | $264K | $310K | +17.3% | |
| Short Pump (Tract 200143) | $640K | $745K | +16.4% | |
| Three Chopt area | $395K | $459K | +16.3% | |
| Short Pump (Tract 200141) | $522K | $605K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varina · Henrico · (Tract 2016.2) | $368K | $398K | $231K | |
| East Highland Park (Tract 201003) | $213K | $256K | $115K | |
| Fairfield (Tract 200806) | $218K | $234K | $113K | |
| East Highland Park (Tract 201002) | $217K | $232K | $104K | |
| Fairfield (Tract 200805) | $194K | $215K | $100K | |
| Highland Springs | $211K | $219K | $98K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
