What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51087200141 in Short Pump?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $532,275 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.7%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51087200141 in Short Pump?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $532,275 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.7%.

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Parcel 51087200141 (Short Pump) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51087200141, Short Pump Home Price Forecast

Henrico, VA · ZIP 23233 · Census Tract 51087200141 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$532K

Downside (P10)

$446K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$605K

+14% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$787K

+48% by 2030

Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$342K	$370K	$429K	$486K	$505K	$532K	$554K	$578K	$605K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$190,275	-$161,875	-$103,775	-$45,975	-$26,875		+$21,707	+$45,390	+$72,677
Growth % vs 2026	-35.7%	-30.4%	-19.5%	-8.6%	-5.0%		+4.1%	+8.5%	+13.7%
Downside (P10)							$462K	$460K	$446K
Upside (P90)							$668K	$716K	$787K

Forecast Confidence

69%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$462K to $668K

37.2% of median

Long-horizon band

$446K to $787K

56.4% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +13.7% · Spread: 56%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51087200141, Short Pump on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).