What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51087200140 in Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.40)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $658,257 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 8.9%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51087200140 in Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.40)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $658,257 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 8.9%.

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Parcel 51087200140 (Short Pump) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51087200140, Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.40) Home Price Forecast

Henrico, VA · ZIP 23233 · Census Tract 51087200140 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$658K

Downside (P10)

$583K

-11% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$717K

+9% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$902K

+37% by 2030

Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$532K	$536K	$595K	$634K	$638K	$658K	$669K	$701K	$717K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$126,357	-$122,057	-$63,357	-$24,557	-$20,657		+$10,700	+$43,193	+$58,471
Growth % vs 2026	-19.2%	-18.5%	-9.6%	-3.7%	-3.1%		+1.6%	+6.6%	+8.9%
Downside (P10)							$593K	$598K	$583K
Upside (P90)							$754K	$856K	$902K

Forecast Confidence

76%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$593K to $754K

24.1% of median

Long-horizon band

$583K to $902K

44.4% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +8.9% · Spread: 44%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51087200140, Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.40) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).