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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Hanover, VA · ZIP 23146 · Census Tract 51085320300 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$503K
Downside (P10)
$429K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$522K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$686K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $322K | $314K | $325K | $334K | $344K | $346K | $367K | $423K | $466K | $500K | $503K | $507K | $506K | $522K |
| YoY Change | -2.7% | +3.4% | +3.0% | +2.9% | +0.6% | +6.2% | +15.3% | +10.2% | +7.1% | +0.7% | +0.9% | -0.3% | +3.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $446K | $442K | $429K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $628K | $665K | $686K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$446K to $628K
35.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$429K to $686K
49.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Anna | $505K | $522K | +3.4% | |
| Cold Harbor | $474K | $554K | +16.8% | |
| Henry (Tract 321401) | $493K | $557K | +13.0% | |
| Beaverdam (Tract 320701) | $487K | $547K | +12.3% | |
| Henry (Tract 320702) | $530K | $585K | +10.5% | |
| Beaverdam (Tract 320100) | $478K | $480K | +0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Anna | $505K | $522K | +3.4% | |
| Cold Harbor (Tract 321300) | $368K | $445K | +21.1% | |
| Cold Harbor (Tract 321403) | $474K | $554K | +16.8% | |
| Beaverdam | $446K | $515K | +15.2% | |
| Beaverdam area | $382K | $433K | +13.3% | |
| Mechanicsville | $278K | $314K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Anna | $505K | $522K | $257K | |
| Ashland (Tract 320601) | $354K | $396K | $202K | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321202) | $278K | $314K | $199K | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321100) | $351K | $356K | $187K | |
| Cold Harbor | $300K | $318K | $159K | |
| Ashland (Tract 320602) | $267K | $292K | $156K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.