Fairfax, VA · ZIP 22309 · Census Tract 51059416100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$953K
Downside (P10)
$803K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.01M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.50M
+57% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +57%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Fairfax markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $656K | $669K | $685K | $691K | $690K | $706K | $738K | $855K | $917K | $939K | $953K | $976K | $987K | $1.0M |
| YoY Change | +2.0% | +2.5% | +0.9% | -0.2% | +2.4% | +4.5% | +15.8% | +7.2% | +2.5% | +1.5% | +2.4% | +1.1% | +2.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $865K | $835K | $803K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$865K to $1.13M
27.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$803K to $1.50M
68.5% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources