What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51059491707 in Fair Oaks · Fairfax · (Tract 4917.7)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $667,422 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 9.7%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51059491707 in Fair Oaks · Fairfax · (Tract 4917.7)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $667,422 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 9.7%.

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Parcel 51059491707 (Fair Oaks) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51059491707, Fair Oaks · Fairfax · (Tract 4917.7) Home Price Forecast

Fairfax, VA · ZIP 22033 · Census Tract 51059491707 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$667K

Downside (P10)

$613K

-8% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$732K

+10% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$925K

+39% by 2030

Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$532K	$539K	$575K	$598K	$645K	$667K	$693K	$721K	$732K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$135,322	-$128,222	-$92,022	-$69,422	-$22,922		+$25,325	+$53,620	+$64,570
Growth % vs 2026	-20.3%	-19.2%	-13.8%	-10.4%	-3.4%		+3.8%	+8.0%	+9.7%
Downside (P10)							$574K	$577K	$613K
Upside (P90)							$782K	$849K	$925K

Forecast Confidence

77%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$574K to $782K

29.9% of median

Long-horizon band

$613K to $925K

42.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +9.7% · Spread: 43%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51059491707, Fair Oaks · Fairfax · (Tract 4917.7) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).