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Fairfax, VA · ZIP 22041 · Census Tract 51059451502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$659K
Downside (P10)
$546K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$725K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$890K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $538K | $505K | $524K | $565K | $548K | $559K | $595K | $657K | $652K | $637K | $659K | $681K | $687K | $725K | $665K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$120,365 | -$153,365 | -$134,265 | -$94,165 | -$110,665 | -$99,465 | -$63,965 | -$2,165 | -$6,565 | -$22,065 | +$22,354 | +$28,621 | +$66,038 | +$5,866 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -18.3% | -23.3% | -20.4% | -14.3% | -16.8% | -15.1% | -9.7% | -0.3% | -1.0% | -3.3% | +3.4% | +4.3% | +10.0% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $568K | $549K | $546K | $592K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $836K | $834K | $890K | $747K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$568K to $836K
39.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$592K to $747K
23.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey's Crossroads · Falls Church · (Tract 4515.2) | $654K | $725K | +10.8% | |
| North Springfield (Tract 452400) | $656K | $733K | +11.8% | |
| Springfield | $659K | $727K | +10.3% | |
| North Springfield (Tract 430500) | $659K | $720K | +9.3% | |
| Lincolnia | $657K | $704K | +7.3% | |
| Burke Centre | $658K | $684K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey's Crossroads · Falls Church · (Tract 4515.2) | $654K | $725K | +10.8% | |
| Woodlawn | $354K | $434K | +22.6% | |
| Belle Haven | $899K | $1.10M | +22.4% | |
| Franconia | $462K | $565K | +22.3% | |
| Mason | $885K | $1.06M | +19.8% | |
| George Mason | $691K | $821K | +18.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey's Crossroads · Falls Church · (Tract 4515.2) | $654K | $725K | $343K | |
| West Springfield | $379K | $407K | $201K | |
| Bailey's Crossroads | $341K | $367K | $193K | |
| Mason | $298K | $337K | $188K | |
| Woodlawn | $293K | $336K | $170K | |
| Seven Corners | $241K | $260K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Fairfax, VA · ZIP 22041 · Census Tract 51059451502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$659K
Downside (P10)
$546K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$725K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$890K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $538K | $505K | $524K | $565K | $548K | $559K | $595K | $657K | $652K | $637K | $659K | $681K | $687K | $725K | $665K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$120,365 | -$153,365 | -$134,265 | -$94,165 | -$110,665 | -$99,465 | -$63,965 | -$2,165 | -$6,565 | -$22,065 | +$22,354 | +$28,621 | +$66,038 | +$5,866 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -18.3% | -23.3% | -20.4% | -14.3% | -16.8% | -15.1% | -9.7% | -0.3% | -1.0% | -3.3% | +3.4% | +4.3% | +10.0% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $568K | $549K | $546K | $592K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $836K | $834K | $890K | $747K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$568K to $836K
39.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$592K to $747K
23.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey's Crossroads · Falls Church · (Tract 4515.2) | $654K | $725K | +10.8% | |
| North Springfield (Tract 452400) | $656K | $733K | +11.8% | |
| Springfield | $659K | $727K | +10.3% | |
| North Springfield (Tract 430500) | $659K | $720K | +9.3% | |
| Lincolnia | $657K | $704K | +7.3% | |
| Burke Centre | $658K | $684K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey's Crossroads · Falls Church · (Tract 4515.2) | $654K | $725K | +10.8% | |
| Woodlawn | $354K | $434K | +22.6% | |
| Belle Haven | $899K | $1.10M | +22.4% | |
| Franconia | $462K | $565K | +22.3% | |
| Mason | $885K | $1.06M | +19.8% | |
| George Mason | $691K | $821K | +18.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey's Crossroads · Falls Church · (Tract 4515.2) | $654K | $725K | $343K | |
| West Springfield | $379K | $407K | $201K | |
| Bailey's Crossroads | $341K | $367K | $193K | |
| Mason | $298K | $337K | $188K | |
| Woodlawn | $293K | $336K | $170K | |
| Seven Corners | $241K | $260K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
