What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51041101014 in Matoaca?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $452,931 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 12.9%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51041101014 in Matoaca?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $452,931 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 12.9%.

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Parcel 51041101014 (Matoaca) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51041101014, Matoaca Home Price Forecast

Chesterfield, VA · ZIP 23832 · Census Tract 51041101014 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$453K

Downside (P10)

$394K

-13% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$511K

+13% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$661K

+46% by 2030

Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$286K	$312K	$359K	$406K	$444K	$453K	$468K	$501K	$511K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$166,831	-$140,631	-$93,931	-$46,831	-$8,631		+$15,320	+$48,235	+$58,441
Growth % vs 2026	-36.8%	-31.0%	-20.7%	-10.3%	-1.9%		+3.4%	+10.6%	+12.9%
Downside (P10)							$407K	$406K	$394K
Upside (P90)							$556K	$593K	$661K

Forecast Confidence

71%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$407K to $556K

31.8% of median

Long-horizon band

$394K to $661K

52.1% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +12.9% · Spread: 52%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51041101014, Matoaca on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).