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Chesapeake, VA · ZIP 23323 · Census Tract 51550021303 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$425K
Downside (P10)
$367K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$454K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$625K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $279K | $283K | $354K | $378K | $417K | $425K | $437K | $454K | $454K |
| YoY Change | +1.2% | +25.0% | +7.0% | +10.3% | +1.9% | +2.9% | +3.8% | +0.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $346K | $359K | $367K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $558K | $607K | $625K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$346K to $558K
48.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$367K to $625K
56.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesapeake · 23323 · (Tract 213.3) | $430K | $454K | +5.6% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 020810) | $422K | $470K | +11.5% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 021604) | $437K | $485K | +10.8% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 021101) | $432K | $466K | +7.9% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 021010) | $420K | $447K | +6.3% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 021005) | $429K | $455K | +5.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesapeake · 23323 · (Tract 213.3) | $430K | $454K | +5.6% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 021503) | $452K | $545K | +20.6% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 020600) | $280K | $329K | +17.5% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 021103) | $541K | $634K | +17.1% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 020200) | $231K | $264K | +14.3% | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 021603) | $480K | $548K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesapeake · 23323 · (Tract 213.3) | $430K | $454K | $258K | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 021602) | $248K | $276K | $126K | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 020809) | $249K | $259K | $123K | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 020100) | $234K | $247K | $122K | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 020905) | $262K | $284K | $115K | |
| Chesapeake (Tract 020700) | $209K | $207K | $114K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.