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Caroline, VA · ZIP 22546 · Census Tract 51033030600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$276K
Downside (P10)
$229K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$294K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$364K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $167K | $176K | $169K | $189K | $225K | $213K | $217K | $253K | $267K | $276K | $281K | $293K | $294K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$115,502 | -$109,402 | -$99,602 | -$107,002 | -$86,702 | -$51,502 | -$62,702 | -$58,602 | -$23,402 | -$8,902 | +$4,866 | +$17,217 | +$18,062 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.8% | -39.6% | -36.1% | -38.8% | -31.4% | -18.7% | -22.7% | -21.2% | -8.5% | -3.2% | +1.8% | +6.2% | +6.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $240K | $239K | $229K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $325K | $362K | $364K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$240K to $325K
30.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$229K to $364K
45.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reedy Church | $273K | $294K | +7.7% | |
| Bowling Green | $287K | $324K | +12.9% | |
| Mattaponi area | $290K | $312K | +7.6% | |
| Mattaponi (Tract 030201) | $328K | $350K | +6.7% | |
| Mattaponi (Tract 030503) | $288K | $306K | +6.3% | |
| Madison | $301K | $314K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reedy Church | $273K | $294K | +7.7% | |
| Bowling Green | $287K | $324K | +12.9% | |
| Madison | $329K | $367K | +11.6% | |
| Port Royal (Tract 030100) | $392K | $436K | +11.1% | |
| Port Royal (Tract 030400) | $368K | $407K | +10.7% | |
| Mattaponi area | $290K | $312K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reedy Church | $273K | $294K | $135K | |
| Mattaponi (Tract 030503) | $288K | $306K | $184K | |
| Port Royal | $368K | $407K | $184K | |
| Mattaponi (Tract 030201) | $328K | $350K | $173K | |
| Bowling Green | $287K | $324K | $171K | |
| Mattaponi area | $290K | $312K | $145K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Caroline, VA · ZIP 22546 · Census Tract 51033030600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$276K
Downside (P10)
$229K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$294K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$364K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $167K | $176K | $169K | $189K | $225K | $213K | $217K | $253K | $267K | $276K | $281K | $293K | $294K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$115,502 | -$109,402 | -$99,602 | -$107,002 | -$86,702 | -$51,502 | -$62,702 | -$58,602 | -$23,402 | -$8,902 | +$4,866 | +$17,217 | +$18,062 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.8% | -39.6% | -36.1% | -38.8% | -31.4% | -18.7% | -22.7% | -21.2% | -8.5% | -3.2% | +1.8% | +6.2% | +6.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $240K | $239K | $229K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $325K | $362K | $364K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$240K to $325K
30.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$229K to $364K
45.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reedy Church | $273K | $294K | +7.7% | |
| Bowling Green | $287K | $324K | +12.9% | |
| Mattaponi area | $290K | $312K | +7.6% | |
| Mattaponi (Tract 030201) | $328K | $350K | +6.7% | |
| Mattaponi (Tract 030503) | $288K | $306K | +6.3% | |
| Madison | $301K | $314K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reedy Church | $273K | $294K | +7.7% | |
| Bowling Green | $287K | $324K | +12.9% | |
| Madison | $329K | $367K | +11.6% | |
| Port Royal (Tract 030100) | $392K | $436K | +11.1% | |
| Port Royal (Tract 030400) | $368K | $407K | +10.7% | |
| Mattaponi area | $290K | $312K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reedy Church | $273K | $294K | $135K | |
| Mattaponi (Tract 030503) | $288K | $306K | $184K | |
| Port Royal | $368K | $407K | $184K | |
| Mattaponi (Tract 030201) | $328K | $350K | $173K | |
| Bowling Green | $287K | $324K | $171K | |
| Mattaponi area | $290K | $312K | $145K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
