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Amherst, VA · ZIP 24572 · Census Tract 51009010504 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$199K
Downside (P10)
$171K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$206K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$254K
+28% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $135K | $124K | $129K | $135K | $148K | $150K | $155K | $169K | $182K | $191K | $199K | $195K | $203K | $206K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$64,176 | -$74,976 | -$69,676 | -$63,576 | -$51,076 | -$49,176 | -$44,076 | -$30,276 | -$16,776 | -$8,176 | -$3,492 | +$4,248 | +$7,303 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.3% | -37.7% | -35.0% | -32.0% | -25.7% | -24.7% | -22.2% | -15.2% | -8.4% | -4.1% | -1.8% | +2.1% | +3.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $172K | $171K | $171K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $234K | $244K | $254K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$172K to $234K
31.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$171K to $254K
40.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Heights | $196K | $206K | +5.0% | |
| 4 (Tract 010506) | $189K | $211K | +11.9% | |
| 4 (Tract 010401) | $170K | $186K | +10.0% | |
| 1 (Tract 010202) | $211K | $231K | +9.2% | |
| Madison Heights | $209K | $226K | +8.2% | |
| 1 (Tract 010600) | $182K | $193K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Heights | $196K | $206K | +5.0% | |
| 4 (Tract 010506) | $189K | $211K | +11.9% | |
| 2 | $264K | $294K | +11.2% | |
| 3 area | $258K | $287K | +11.0% | |
| 4 (Tract 010401) | $170K | $186K | +10.0% | |
| 1 | $211K | $231K | +9.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Heights | $196K | $206K | $84K | |
| 2 | $264K | $294K | $133K | |
| 4 (Tract 010401) | $170K | $186K | $112K | |
| Madison Heights (Tract 010402) | $209K | $226K | $110K | |
| Madison Heights (Tract 010505) | $165K | $179K | $102K | |
| 4 (Tract 010506) | $189K | $211K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Amherst, VA · ZIP 24572 · Census Tract 51009010504 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$199K
Downside (P10)
$171K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$206K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$254K
+28% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $135K | $124K | $129K | $135K | $148K | $150K | $155K | $169K | $182K | $191K | $199K | $195K | $203K | $206K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$64,176 | -$74,976 | -$69,676 | -$63,576 | -$51,076 | -$49,176 | -$44,076 | -$30,276 | -$16,776 | -$8,176 | -$3,492 | +$4,248 | +$7,303 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.3% | -37.7% | -35.0% | -32.0% | -25.7% | -24.7% | -22.2% | -15.2% | -8.4% | -4.1% | -1.8% | +2.1% | +3.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $172K | $171K | $171K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $234K | $244K | $254K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$172K to $234K
31.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$171K to $254K
40.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Heights | $196K | $206K | +5.0% | |
| 4 (Tract 010506) | $189K | $211K | +11.9% | |
| 4 (Tract 010401) | $170K | $186K | +10.0% | |
| 1 (Tract 010202) | $211K | $231K | +9.2% | |
| Madison Heights | $209K | $226K | +8.2% | |
| 1 (Tract 010600) | $182K | $193K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Heights | $196K | $206K | +5.0% | |
| 4 (Tract 010506) | $189K | $211K | +11.9% | |
| 2 | $264K | $294K | +11.2% | |
| 3 area | $258K | $287K | +11.0% | |
| 4 (Tract 010401) | $170K | $186K | +10.0% | |
| 1 | $211K | $231K | +9.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Heights | $196K | $206K | $84K | |
| 2 | $264K | $294K | $133K | |
| 4 (Tract 010401) | $170K | $186K | $112K | |
| Madison Heights (Tract 010402) | $209K | $226K | $110K | |
| Madison Heights (Tract 010505) | $165K | $179K | $102K | |
| 4 (Tract 010506) | $189K | $211K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
