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Alexandria, VA · ZIP 22304 · Census Tract 51510200600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$587K
Downside (P10)
$527K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$643K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$870K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $338K | $353K | $380K | $387K | $408K | $453K | $449K | $470K | $536K | $568K | $587K | $611K | $638K | $643K |
| YoY Change | +4.3% | +7.6% | +1.9% | +5.4% | +11.1% | -0.8% | +4.6% | +14.2% | +6.0% | +3.3% | +4.1% | +4.3% | +0.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $516K | $533K | $527K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $736K | $784K | $870K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$516K to $736K
36.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$527K to $870K
53.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | $575K | $643K | +11.8% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200111) | $583K | $673K | +15.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200301) | $513K | $578K | +12.7% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201805) | $637K | $700K | +10.0% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201602) | $574K | $621K | +8.3% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200705) | $653K | $706K | +8.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | $575K | $643K | +11.8% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200304) | $307K | $365K | +18.6% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201802) | $1.32M | $1.53M | +16.5% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201804) | $1.11M | $1.29M | +16.0% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200111) | $583K | $673K | +15.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200109) | $276K | $317K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | $575K | $643K | $343K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201000) | $385K | $411K | $174K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200109) | $276K | $317K | $171K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200305) | $319K | $358K | $166K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200108) | $257K | $276K | $158K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200406) | $320K | $332K | $154K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.