What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51510200305 in Alexandria?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $319,848 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 12.1%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51510200305 in Alexandria?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $319,848 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 12.1%.

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Parcel 51510200305 (Alexandria) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51510200305, Alexandria Home Price Forecast

Alexandria, VA · ZIP 22304 · Census Tract 51510200305 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$320K

Downside (P10)

$288K

-10% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$358K

+12% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$453K

+42% by 2030

Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$314K	$304K	$295K	$283K	$309K	$320K	$333K	$345K	$358K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$6,248	-$15,748	-$25,148	-$37,348	-$10,548		+$12,704	+$25,331	+$38,558
Growth % vs 2026	-2.0%	-4.9%	-7.9%	-11.7%	-3.3%		+4.0%	+7.9%	+12.1%
Downside (P10)							$290K	$287K	$288K
Upside (P90)							$376K	$417K	$453K

Forecast Confidence

75%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$290K to $376K

25.8% of median

Long-horizon band

$288K to $453K

46.2% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +12.1% · Spread: 46%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51510200305, Alexandria on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).