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Albemarle, VA · ZIP 22911 · Census Tract 51003010301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$413K
Downside (P10)
$378K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$484K
+17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$597K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $269K | $282K | $340K | $354K | $384K | $413K | $433K | $467K | $484K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$143,822 | -$130,822 | -$72,822 | -$59,222 | -$29,422 | +$19,712 | +$54,269 | +$71,296 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.8% | -31.7% | -17.6% | -14.3% | -7.1% | +4.8% | +13.1% | +17.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $375K | $371K | $378K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $515K | $557K | $597K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$375K to $515K
32.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$378K to $597K
45.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollymead | $400K | $484K | +21.0% | |
| Jack Jouett | $431K | $486K | +12.7% | |
| Pantops | $410K | $459K | +12.0% | |
| White Hall | $427K | $478K | +12.0% | |
| University of Virginia | $423K | $471K | +11.3% | |
| Scottsville | $429K | $465K | +8.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollymead | $400K | $484K | +21.0% | |
| Jack Jouett | $431K | $486K | +12.7% | |
| Pantops | $410K | $459K | +12.0% | |
| White Hall (Tract 011101) | $427K | $478K | +12.0% | |
| White Hall (Tract 011102) | $583K | $652K | +11.7% | |
| Rio | $500K | $557K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollymead | $400K | $484K | $219K | |
| Scottsville (Tract 011302) | $285K | $312K | $187K | |
| Scottsville (Tract 011400) | $354K | $376K | $175K | |
| Rio (Tract 010603) | $293K | $311K | $174K | |
| Rio (Tract 010702) | $296K | $322K | $153K | |
| Jack Jouett | $240K | $255K | $115K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Albemarle, VA · ZIP 22911 · Census Tract 51003010301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$413K
Downside (P10)
$378K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$484K
+17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$597K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $269K | $282K | $340K | $354K | $384K | $413K | $433K | $467K | $484K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$143,822 | -$130,822 | -$72,822 | -$59,222 | -$29,422 | +$19,712 | +$54,269 | +$71,296 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.8% | -31.7% | -17.6% | -14.3% | -7.1% | +4.8% | +13.1% | +17.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $375K | $371K | $378K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $515K | $557K | $597K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$375K to $515K
32.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$378K to $597K
45.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollymead | $400K | $484K | +21.0% | |
| Jack Jouett | $431K | $486K | +12.7% | |
| Pantops | $410K | $459K | +12.0% | |
| White Hall | $427K | $478K | +12.0% | |
| University of Virginia | $423K | $471K | +11.3% | |
| Scottsville | $429K | $465K | +8.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollymead | $400K | $484K | +21.0% | |
| Jack Jouett | $431K | $486K | +12.7% | |
| Pantops | $410K | $459K | +12.0% | |
| White Hall (Tract 011101) | $427K | $478K | +12.0% | |
| White Hall (Tract 011102) | $583K | $652K | +11.7% | |
| Rio | $500K | $557K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollymead | $400K | $484K | $219K | |
| Scottsville (Tract 011302) | $285K | $312K | $187K | |
| Scottsville (Tract 011400) | $354K | $376K | $175K | |
| Rio (Tract 010603) | $293K | $311K | $174K | |
| Rio (Tract 010702) | $296K | $322K | $153K | |
| Jack Jouett | $240K | $255K | $115K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
