What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51001090101 in Chincoteague?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $388,109 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 11.5%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51001090101 in Chincoteague?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $388,109 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 11.5%.

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Parcel 51001090101 (Chincoteague) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51001090101, Chincoteague Home Price Forecast

Accomack, VA · ZIP 23336 · Census Tract 51001090101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$388K

Downside (P10)

$334K

-14% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$433K

+12% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$576K

+48% by 2030

Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$335K	$341K	$341K	$342K	$369K	$388K	$400K	$418K	$433K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$53,609	-$47,009	-$47,509	-$46,509	-$19,209		+$11,542	+$29,562	+$44,743
Growth % vs 2026	-13.8%	-12.1%	-12.2%	-12.0%	-4.9%		+3.0%	+7.6%	+11.5%
Downside (P10)							$343K	$339K	$334K
Upside (P90)							$479K	$530K	$576K

Forecast Confidence

69%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$343K to $479K

34.2% of median

Long-horizon band

$334K to $576K

55.9% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +11.5% · Spread: 56%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51001090101, Chincoteague on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).