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Davis, UT · ZIP 84015 · Census Tract 49011125501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$380K
Downside (P10)
$341K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$414K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$557K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $171K | $176K | $181K | $190K | $200K | $221K | $257K | $305K | $337K | $382K | $380K | $388K | $410K | $414K | $399K |
| YoY Change | +3.0% | +2.6% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +10.5% | +16.4% | +18.5% | +10.6% | +13.3% | -0.5% | +2.0% | +5.7% | +1.0% | -3.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $339K | $343K | $341K | $356K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $503K | $535K | $557K | $448K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$339K to $503K
42.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$356K to $448K
22.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Davis · Clearfield · (Tract 1255.1) | $387K | $414K | +7.0% | |
| Bountiful | $401K | $461K | +14.8% | |
| Layton (Tract 125801) | $372K | $418K | +12.4% | |
| Clearfield (Tract 125502) | $388K | $429K | +10.7% | |
| Clearfield (Tract 125701) | $364K | $394K | +8.2% | |
| Layton (Tract 126001) | $380K | $400K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Davis · Clearfield · (Tract 1255.1) | $387K | $414K | +7.0% | |
| Sunset | $342K | $401K | +17.5% | |
| Bountiful | $588K | $685K | +16.4% | |
| South Davis | $574K | $668K | +16.4% | |
| North Davis | $449K | $517K | +15.2% | |
| Kaysville | $854K | $983K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Davis · Clearfield · (Tract 1255.1) | $387K | $414K | $216K | |
| Woods Cross | $447K | $496K | $219K | |
| North Davis | $356K | $386K | $218K | |
| South Davis | $416K | $449K | $216K | |
| Clearfield | $429K | $459K | $208K | |
| Sunset | $342K | $401K | $200K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.