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Zapata, TX · Census Tract 48505000800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.11M
Downside (P10)
$465K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$885K
-21% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.46M
+31% by 2030
Base case: -21% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $912K | $885K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$13,018 | -$96,352 | -$202,236 | -$229,526 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +1.2% | -8.6% | -18.2% | -20.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $707K | $572K | $471K | $465K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$707K to $1.5M
70.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$465K to $1.5M
112.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000800 | $1.11M | $885K | -20.6% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000347) | $1.13M | $931K | -17.8% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000680) | $1.36M | $1.02M | -24.7% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000185) | $1.40M | $999K | -28.7% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000509) | $1.39M | $965K | -30.4% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000567) | $1.31M | $817K | -37.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000800 | $1.11M | $885K | -20.6% | |
| Zapata (Tract 950306) | $152K | $166K | +9.6% | |
| Medina | $68K | $74K | +9.4% | |
| Zapata (Tract 950401) | $87K | $92K | +6.5% | |
| Zapata (Tract 950303) | $125K | $131K | +5.1% | |
| Zapata (Tract 950402) | $96K | $93K | -3.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000800 | $1.11M | $885K | $998K | |
| Zapata (Tract 950306) | $152K | $166K | $74K | |
| Zapata (Tract 950303) | $125K | $131K | $68K | |
| Medina | $68K | $74K | $48K | |
| Zapata (Tract 950401) | $87K | $92K | $38K | |
| Zapata (Tract 950402) | $96K | $93K | $22K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Zapata, TX · Census Tract 48505000800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.11M
Downside (P10)
$465K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$885K
-21% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.46M
+31% by 2030
Base case: -21% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $912K | $885K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$13,018 | -$96,352 | -$202,236 | -$229,526 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +1.2% | -8.6% | -18.2% | -20.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $707K | $572K | $471K | $465K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$707K to $1.5M
70.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$465K to $1.5M
112.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000800 | $1.11M | $885K | -20.6% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000347) | $1.13M | $931K | -17.8% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000680) | $1.36M | $1.02M | -24.7% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000185) | $1.40M | $999K | -28.7% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000509) | $1.39M | $965K | -30.4% | |
| Zapata (Tract 000567) | $1.31M | $817K | -37.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000800 | $1.11M | $885K | -20.6% | |
| Zapata (Tract 950306) | $152K | $166K | +9.6% | |
| Medina | $68K | $74K | +9.4% | |
| Zapata (Tract 950401) | $87K | $92K | +6.5% | |
| Zapata (Tract 950303) | $125K | $131K | +5.1% | |
| Zapata (Tract 950402) | $96K | $93K | -3.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000800 | $1.11M | $885K | $998K | |
| Zapata (Tract 950306) | $152K | $166K | $74K | |
| Zapata (Tract 950303) | $125K | $131K | $68K | |
| Medina | $68K | $74K | $48K | |
| Zapata (Tract 950401) | $87K | $92K | $38K | |
| Zapata (Tract 950402) | $96K | $93K | $22K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
