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Young, TX · Census Tract 48503003168 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$397K
Downside (P10)
$328K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$561K
+41% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$958K
+141% by 2030
Base case: +41% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +141%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $397K | $453K | $462K | $521K | $561K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$55,946 | +$64,511 | +$124,097 | +$163,386 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +14.1% | +16.2% | +31.2% | +41.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $357K | $323K | $311K | $328K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $601K | $704K | $823K | $958K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$357K to $601K
53.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$328K to $958K
112.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003168 | $397K | $561K | +41.1% | |
| Young (Tract 000365) | $401K | $692K | +72.6% | |
| Young (Tract 000200) | $396K | $636K | +60.4% | |
| Young (Tract 000763) | $395K | $574K | +45.5% | |
| Young (Tract 002363) | $397K | $551K | +38.8% | |
| Young (Tract 000828) | $394K | $538K | +36.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003168 | $397K | $561K | +41.1% | |
| Young (Tract 000129) | $405K | $716K | +76.8% | |
| Young (Tract 000404) | $418K | $726K | +73.8% | |
| Young (Tract 000365) | $401K | $692K | +72.6% | |
| Young (Tract 000349) | $417K | $714K | +71.4% | |
| Young (Tract 000145) | $413K | $701K | +69.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003168 | $397K | $561K | $629K | |
| Graham (Tract 950600) | $205K | $226K | $125K | |
| Newcastle area | $200K | $214K | $109K | |
| Olney area | $122K | $125K | $54K | |
| Graham (Tract 950401) | $200K | $200K | $48K | |
| Graham (Tract 950500) | $188K | $191K | $41K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Young, TX · Census Tract 48503003168 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$397K
Downside (P10)
$328K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$561K
+41% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$958K
+141% by 2030
Base case: +41% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +141%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $397K | $453K | $462K | $521K | $561K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$55,946 | +$64,511 | +$124,097 | +$163,386 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +14.1% | +16.2% | +31.2% | +41.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $357K | $323K | $311K | $328K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $601K | $704K | $823K | $958K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$357K to $601K
53.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$328K to $958K
112.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003168 | $397K | $561K | +41.1% | |
| Young (Tract 000365) | $401K | $692K | +72.6% | |
| Young (Tract 000200) | $396K | $636K | +60.4% | |
| Young (Tract 000763) | $395K | $574K | +45.5% | |
| Young (Tract 002363) | $397K | $551K | +38.8% | |
| Young (Tract 000828) | $394K | $538K | +36.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003168 | $397K | $561K | +41.1% | |
| Young (Tract 000129) | $405K | $716K | +76.8% | |
| Young (Tract 000404) | $418K | $726K | +73.8% | |
| Young (Tract 000365) | $401K | $692K | +72.6% | |
| Young (Tract 000349) | $417K | $714K | +71.4% | |
| Young (Tract 000145) | $413K | $701K | +69.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003168 | $397K | $561K | $629K | |
| Graham (Tract 950600) | $205K | $226K | $125K | |
| Newcastle area | $200K | $214K | $109K | |
| Olney area | $122K | $125K | $54K | |
| Graham (Tract 950401) | $200K | $200K | $48K | |
| Graham (Tract 950500) | $188K | $191K | $41K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
