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Wichita, TX · ZIP 76354 · Census Tract 48485013502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$212K
Downside (P10)
$184K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$223K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$281K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $115K | $118K | $111K | $117K | $116K | $114K | $139K | $175K | $194K | $208K | $212K | $221K | $223K | $223K | $217K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$97,300 | -$94,500 | -$100,900 | -$95,500 | -$96,300 | -$98,100 | -$73,800 | -$37,400 | -$18,000 | -$4,400 | +$8,484 | +$10,208 | +$10,830 | +$4,271 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -45.8% | -44.5% | -47.5% | -45.0% | -45.4% | -46.2% | -34.8% | -17.6% | -8.5% | -2.1% | +4.0% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +2.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $194K | $191K | $184K | $192K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $254K | $273K | $281K | $245K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$194K to $254K
27.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$192K to $245K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkburnett | $207K | $223K | +7.6% | |
| Wichita | $218K | $294K | +34.5% | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 012401) | $202K | $233K | +15.6% | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 013202) | $209K | $227K | +8.7% | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 011700) | $219K | $235K | +7.4% | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 012600) | $204K | $202K | -0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkburnett | $207K | $223K | +7.6% | |
| Wichita (Tract 560004) | $229K | $307K | +34.5% | |
| Wichita (Tract 880001) | $218K | $294K | +34.5% | |
| Wichita (Tract 120004) | $225K | $298K | +32.1% | |
| Wichita (Tract 920000) | $230K | $301K | +31.2% | |
| Wichita (Tract 440001) | $224K | $293K | +31.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkburnett | $207K | $223K | $97K | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 010200) | $69K | $76K | $34K | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 011400) | $75K | $81K | $29K | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 010400) | $57K | $59K | $29K | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 010800) | $62K | $65K | $28K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Wichita, TX · ZIP 76354 · Census Tract 48485013502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$212K
Downside (P10)
$184K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$223K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$281K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $115K | $118K | $111K | $117K | $116K | $114K | $139K | $175K | $194K | $208K | $212K | $221K | $223K | $223K | $217K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$97,300 | -$94,500 | -$100,900 | -$95,500 | -$96,300 | -$98,100 | -$73,800 | -$37,400 | -$18,000 | -$4,400 | +$8,484 | +$10,208 | +$10,830 | +$4,271 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -45.8% | -44.5% | -47.5% | -45.0% | -45.4% | -46.2% | -34.8% | -17.6% | -8.5% | -2.1% | +4.0% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +2.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $194K | $191K | $184K | $192K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $254K | $273K | $281K | $245K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$194K to $254K
27.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$192K to $245K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkburnett | $207K | $223K | +7.6% | |
| Wichita | $218K | $294K | +34.5% | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 012401) | $202K | $233K | +15.6% | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 013202) | $209K | $227K | +8.7% | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 011700) | $219K | $235K | +7.4% | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 012600) | $204K | $202K | -0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkburnett | $207K | $223K | +7.6% | |
| Wichita (Tract 560004) | $229K | $307K | +34.5% | |
| Wichita (Tract 880001) | $218K | $294K | +34.5% | |
| Wichita (Tract 120004) | $225K | $298K | +32.1% | |
| Wichita (Tract 920000) | $230K | $301K | +31.2% | |
| Wichita (Tract 440001) | $224K | $293K | +31.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkburnett | $207K | $223K | $97K | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 010200) | $69K | $76K | $34K | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 011400) | $75K | $81K | $29K | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 010400) | $57K | $59K | $29K | |
| Wichita Falls (Tract 010800) | $62K | $65K | $28K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
