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Wharton, TX · ZIP 77437 · Census Tract 48481740902 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$246K
Downside (P10)
$211K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$275K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$379K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $191K | $189K | $235K | $220K | $237K | $246K | $251K | $260K | $275K |
| YoY Change | -1.1% | +24.2% | -6.3% | +7.9% | +3.8% | +1.9% | +3.5% | +5.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $223K | $221K | $211K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $323K | $343K | $379K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$223K to $323K
40.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$211K to $379K
61.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Campo · 77437 · (Tract 7409.2) | $245K | $275K | +12.2% | |
| Wharton (Tract 740500) | $199K | $230K | +15.8% | |
| El Campo | $252K | $290K | +15.3% | |
| Louise | $214K | $228K | +6.2% | |
| East Bernard | $310K | $325K | +5.1% | |
| Wharton (Tract 740400) | $177K | $183K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Campo · 77437 · (Tract 7409.2) | $245K | $275K | +12.2% | |
| Wharton | $199K | $230K | +15.8% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740901) | $252K | $290K | +15.3% | |
| El Campo (Tract 741000) | $161K | $180K | +11.4% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740700) | $98K | $108K | +10.5% | |
| Boling-Newgulf | $175K | $187K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Campo · 77437 · (Tract 7409.2) | $245K | $275K | $168K | |
| El Campo (Tract 740800) | $157K | $166K | $97K | |
| Wharton (Tract 740200) | $137K | $145K | $92K | |
| Wharton (Tract 740400) | $177K | $183K | $91K | |
| El Campo (Tract 740700) | $98K | $108K | $89K | |
| El Campo (Tract 741000) | $161K | $180K | $86K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.