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Upshur, TX · ZIP 75644 · Census Tract 48459950200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$133K
Downside (P10)
$109K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$137K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$188K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $100K | $102K | $100K | $123K | $120K | $118K | $124K | $141K | $133K | $132K | $133K | $138K | $138K | $137K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$33,252 | -$30,552 | -$32,652 | -$10,052 | -$12,652 | -$14,752 | -$8,852 | +$8,048 | -$452 | -$1,452 | +$5,147 | +$5,305 | +$4,161 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.0% | -23.0% | -24.6% | -7.6% | -9.5% | -11.1% | -6.7% | +6.1% | -0.3% | -1.1% | +3.9% | +4.0% | +3.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $115K | $118K | $109K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $161K | $179K | $188K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$115K to $161K
33.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$109K to $188K
58.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettie | $132K | $137K | +4.1% | |
| Gladewater | $168K | $189K | +12.4% | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950502) | $123K | $136K | +10.7% | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950501) | $97K | $106K | +10.2% | |
| Gilmer | $164K | $179K | +9.3% | |
| Ore City | $168K | $178K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettie | $132K | $137K | +4.1% | |
| Gladewater | $168K | $189K | +12.4% | |
| Gilmer (Tract 950302) | $180K | $201K | +11.9% | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950502) | $123K | $136K | +10.7% | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950501) | $97K | $106K | +10.2% | |
| Gilmer (Tract 950301) | $175K | $193K | +9.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettie | $132K | $137K | $79K | |
| Gladewater | $180K | $195K | $102K | |
| Gilmer | $175K | $193K | $89K | |
| Ore City | $168K | $178K | $87K | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950502) | $123K | $136K | $75K | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950501) | $97K | $106K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Upshur, TX · ZIP 75644 · Census Tract 48459950200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$133K
Downside (P10)
$109K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$137K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$188K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $100K | $102K | $100K | $123K | $120K | $118K | $124K | $141K | $133K | $132K | $133K | $138K | $138K | $137K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$33,252 | -$30,552 | -$32,652 | -$10,052 | -$12,652 | -$14,752 | -$8,852 | +$8,048 | -$452 | -$1,452 | +$5,147 | +$5,305 | +$4,161 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.0% | -23.0% | -24.6% | -7.6% | -9.5% | -11.1% | -6.7% | +6.1% | -0.3% | -1.1% | +3.9% | +4.0% | +3.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $115K | $118K | $109K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $161K | $179K | $188K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$115K to $161K
33.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$109K to $188K
58.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettie | $132K | $137K | +4.1% | |
| Gladewater | $168K | $189K | +12.4% | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950502) | $123K | $136K | +10.7% | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950501) | $97K | $106K | +10.2% | |
| Gilmer | $164K | $179K | +9.3% | |
| Ore City | $168K | $178K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettie | $132K | $137K | +4.1% | |
| Gladewater | $168K | $189K | +12.4% | |
| Gilmer (Tract 950302) | $180K | $201K | +11.9% | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950502) | $123K | $136K | +10.7% | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950501) | $97K | $106K | +10.2% | |
| Gilmer (Tract 950301) | $175K | $193K | +9.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettie | $132K | $137K | $79K | |
| Gladewater | $180K | $195K | $102K | |
| Gilmer | $175K | $193K | $89K | |
| Ore City | $168K | $178K | $87K | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950502) | $123K | $136K | $75K | |
| Big Sandy (Tract 950501) | $97K | $106K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
