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Tarrant, TX · ZIP 76109 · Census Tract 48439105405 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.14M
Downside (P10)
$916K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.19M
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.62M
+43% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $395K | $357K | $385K | $451K | $681K | $709K | $767K | $907K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | -9.6% | +7.7% | +17.4% | +51.0% | +4.0% | +8.2% | +18.2% | +14.4% | +1.6% | +8.1% | +2.2% | +1.0% | +0.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $978K | $968K | $916K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$978K to $1.46M
41.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$916K to $1.62M
59.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Worth | $1.09M | $1.19M | +9.2% | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 105520) | $1.02M | $1.21M | +19.0% | |
| Southlake (Tract 113958) | $1.11M | $1.23M | +10.9% | |
| Southlake (Tract 113956) | $1.20M | $1.32M | +10.1% | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 123002) | $1.23M | $1.33M | +8.7% | |
| Northeast Tarrant | $1.07M | $1.08M | +1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Worth | $1.09M | $1.19M | +9.2% | |
| Grapevine | $406K | $513K | +26.5% | |
| Fort Worth | $276K | $336K | +21.8% | |
| Grand Prairie | $379K | $459K | +21.1% | |
| Watauga | $300K | $362K | +20.7% | |
| Haltom City | $209K | $250K | +19.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Worth | $1.09M | $1.19M | $708K | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 100800) | $141K | $147K | $68K | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 106102) | $94K | $106K | $61K | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 106520) | $86K | $94K | $61K | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 106400) | $89K | $98K | $54K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.