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Tarrant, TX · ZIP 76001 · Census Tract 48439111402 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$344K
Downside (P10)
$283K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$386K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$485K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $149K | $142K | $150K | $159K | $173K | $235K | $254K | $286K | $305K | $332K | $344K | $348K | $359K | $386K | $349K |
| YoY Change | -4.3% | +5.2% | +6.2% | +8.7% | +35.7% | +8.5% | +12.3% | +6.8% | +9.0% | +3.4% | +1.4% | +3.0% | +7.5% | -9.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $296K | $290K | $283K | $308K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $419K | $456K | $485K | $387K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$296K to $419K
35.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$308K to $387K
22.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 76001 · (Tract 1114.2) | $336K | $386K | +14.8% | |
| Arlington (Tract 111546) | $346K | $396K | +14.6% | |
| Arlington (Tract 113116) | $342K | $391K | +14.4% | |
| Arlington (Tract 111568) | $345K | $380K | +10.0% | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 105518) | $346K | $374K | +8.1% | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 100601) | $343K | $360K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 76001 · (Tract 1114.2) | $336K | $386K | +14.8% | |
| Grapevine | $406K | $513K | +26.5% | |
| Fort Worth | $276K | $336K | +21.8% | |
| Grand Prairie | $379K | $459K | +21.1% | |
| Watauga | $300K | $362K | +20.7% | |
| Haltom City | $209K | $250K | +19.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 76001 · (Tract 1114.2) | $336K | $386K | $201K | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 100800) | $141K | $147K | $68K | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 106102) | $94K | $106K | $61K | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 106520) | $86K | $94K | $61K | |
| Fort Worth (Tract 106400) | $89K | $98K | $54K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.