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Stephens, TX · ZIP 76424 · Census Tract 48429950500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$200K
Downside (P10)
$151K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$220K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$279K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $111K | $102K | $94K | $87K | $87K | $146K | $187K | $189K | $203K | $187K | $200K | $209K | $214K | $220K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$88,522 | -$97,822 | -$105,722 | -$113,322 | -$113,222 | -$53,822 | -$13,322 | -$10,822 | +$2,978 | -$12,622 | +$9,118 | +$14,267 | +$20,164 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -44.3% | -49.0% | -52.9% | -56.7% | -56.7% | -26.9% | -6.7% | -5.4% | +1.5% | -6.3% | +4.6% | +7.1% | +10.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $158K | $154K | $151K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $252K | $274K | $279K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$158K to $252K
45.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$151K to $279K
58.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $192K | $220K | +14.9% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $86K | $94K | +9.3% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | +2.6% | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $584K | -9.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 960000) | $628K | $538K | -14.3% | |
| Stephens (Tract 680005) | $682K | $556K | -18.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $192K | $220K | +14.9% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $86K | $94K | +9.3% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | +2.6% | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $584K | -9.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 240005) | $691K | $623K | -9.9% | |
| Stephens (Tract 960000) | $628K | $538K | -14.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $192K | $220K | $128K | |
| Stephens (Tract 680005) | $682K | $556K | $741K | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $584K | $669K | |
| Stephens (Tract 960000) | $628K | $538K | $627K | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $86K | $94K | $48K | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Stephens, TX · ZIP 76424 · Census Tract 48429950500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$200K
Downside (P10)
$151K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$220K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$279K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $111K | $102K | $94K | $87K | $87K | $146K | $187K | $189K | $203K | $187K | $200K | $209K | $214K | $220K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$88,522 | -$97,822 | -$105,722 | -$113,322 | -$113,222 | -$53,822 | -$13,322 | -$10,822 | +$2,978 | -$12,622 | +$9,118 | +$14,267 | +$20,164 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -44.3% | -49.0% | -52.9% | -56.7% | -56.7% | -26.9% | -6.7% | -5.4% | +1.5% | -6.3% | +4.6% | +7.1% | +10.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $158K | $154K | $151K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $252K | $274K | $279K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$158K to $252K
45.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$151K to $279K
58.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $192K | $220K | +14.9% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $86K | $94K | +9.3% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | +2.6% | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $584K | -9.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 960000) | $628K | $538K | -14.3% | |
| Stephens (Tract 680005) | $682K | $556K | -18.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $192K | $220K | +14.9% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $86K | $94K | +9.3% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | +2.6% | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $584K | -9.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 240005) | $691K | $623K | -9.9% | |
| Stephens (Tract 960000) | $628K | $538K | -14.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $192K | $220K | $128K | |
| Stephens (Tract 680005) | $682K | $556K | $741K | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $584K | $669K | |
| Stephens (Tract 960000) | $628K | $538K | $627K | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $86K | $94K | $48K | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
