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Starr, TX · ZIP 78582 · Census Tract 48427950107 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$104K
Downside (P10)
$94K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$111K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$137K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $51K | $50K | $60K | $59K | $58K | $71K | $87K | $88K | $108K | $98K | $104K | $105K | $107K | $111K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$52,970 | -$53,670 | -$43,670 | -$44,370 | -$46,070 | -$32,470 | -$16,270 | -$15,970 | +$4,630 | -$5,570 | +$990 | +$3,599 | +$7,445 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.1% | -51.8% | -42.1% | -42.8% | -44.4% | -31.3% | -15.7% | -15.4% | +4.5% | -5.4% | +1.0% | +3.5% | +7.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $97K | $93K | $94K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $121K | $133K | $137K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$97K to $121K
23.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$94K to $137K
38.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Grande City · 78582 · (Tract 9501.7) | $100K | $111K | +11.2% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950601) | $111K | $126K | +13.2% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950602) | $109K | $123K | +13.0% | |
| Roma | $113K | $127K | +12.7% | |
| La Grulla | $116K | $126K | +8.7% | |
| Roma-Los Saenz | $90K | $96K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Grande City · 78582 · (Tract 9501.7) | $100K | $111K | +11.2% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950108) | $126K | $144K | +13.9% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950601) | $111K | $126K | +13.2% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950602) | $109K | $123K | +13.0% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950106) | $79K | $89K | +12.8% | |
| Roma | $113K | $127K | +12.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Grande City · 78582 · (Tract 9501.7) | $100K | $111K | $43K | |
| Roma-Los Saenz (Tract 950203) | $81K | $88K | $46K | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950602) | $109K | $123K | $45K | |
| Roma-Los Saenz (Tract 950204) | $53K | $59K | $38K | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950500) | $69K | $72K | $36K | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950101) | $72K | $79K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Starr, TX · ZIP 78582 · Census Tract 48427950107 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$104K
Downside (P10)
$94K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$111K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$137K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $51K | $50K | $60K | $59K | $58K | $71K | $87K | $88K | $108K | $98K | $104K | $105K | $107K | $111K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$52,970 | -$53,670 | -$43,670 | -$44,370 | -$46,070 | -$32,470 | -$16,270 | -$15,970 | +$4,630 | -$5,570 | +$990 | +$3,599 | +$7,445 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.1% | -51.8% | -42.1% | -42.8% | -44.4% | -31.3% | -15.7% | -15.4% | +4.5% | -5.4% | +1.0% | +3.5% | +7.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $97K | $93K | $94K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $121K | $133K | $137K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$97K to $121K
23.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$94K to $137K
38.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Grande City · 78582 · (Tract 9501.7) | $100K | $111K | +11.2% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950601) | $111K | $126K | +13.2% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950602) | $109K | $123K | +13.0% | |
| Roma | $113K | $127K | +12.7% | |
| La Grulla | $116K | $126K | +8.7% | |
| Roma-Los Saenz | $90K | $96K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Grande City · 78582 · (Tract 9501.7) | $100K | $111K | +11.2% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950108) | $126K | $144K | +13.9% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950601) | $111K | $126K | +13.2% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950602) | $109K | $123K | +13.0% | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950106) | $79K | $89K | +12.8% | |
| Roma | $113K | $127K | +12.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Grande City · 78582 · (Tract 9501.7) | $100K | $111K | $43K | |
| Roma-Los Saenz (Tract 950203) | $81K | $88K | $46K | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950602) | $109K | $123K | $45K | |
| Roma-Los Saenz (Tract 950204) | $53K | $59K | $38K | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950500) | $69K | $72K | $36K | |
| Rio Grande City (Tract 950101) | $72K | $79K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
