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San Antonio, TX · ZIP 78209 · Census Tract 48029192000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$573K
Downside (P10)
$489K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$597K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$828K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $243K | $215K | $242K | $291K | $364K | $406K | $432K | $468K | $496K | $553K | $573K | $578K | $588K | $597K | $575K |
| YoY Change | -11.3% | +12.3% | +20.2% | +25.1% | +11.8% | +6.4% | +8.1% | +6.0% | +11.6% | +3.6% | +0.9% | +1.7% | +1.6% | -3.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $503K | $492K | $489K | $510K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $688K | $762K | $828K | $651K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$503K to $688K
32.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$510K to $651K
24.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alamo Heights | $566K | $597K | +5.5% | |
| Monte Vista | $566K | $626K | +10.6% | |
| Johnson Ranch | $565K | $633K | +12.0% | |
| Stone Oak North (Tract 191808) | $582K | $628K | +7.7% | |
| Stone Oak Far North | $559K | $646K | +15.7% | |
| Stone Oak North (Tract 191816) | $588K | $685K | +16.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alamo Heights | $566K | $597K | +5.5% | |
| Westside (Tract 170402) | $117K | $151K | +28.6% | |
| Kelly (Tract 161504) | $166K | $200K | +20.5% | |
| Southeast | $180K | $216K | +19.8% | |
| Kelly (Tract 161503) | $173K | $206K | +19.5% | |
| Westside (Tract 170300) | $101K | $121K | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alamo Heights | $566K | $597K | $339K | |
| Kelly | $84K | $84K | $46K | |
| Kirby | $113K | $123K | $48K | |
| Edgewood | $103K | $110K | $51K | |
| Avenida Guadalupe | $116K | $124K | $52K | |
| East Side | $110K | $117K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.