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McLennan, TX · ZIP 76640 · Census Tract 48309003401 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$274K
Downside (P10)
$257K
-6% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$290K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$422K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -6% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $169K | $175K | $212K | $216K | $266K | $274K | $279K | $286K | $290K |
| YoY Change | +3.4% | +21.2% | +1.9% | +23.1% | +2.8% | +1.9% | +2.6% | +1.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $248K | $260K | $257K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $318K | $367K | $422K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$248K to $318K
25.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$257K to $422K
57.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elm Mott · 76640 | $268K | $290K | +8.0% | |
| Waco (Tract 003708) | $284K | $331K | +16.8% | |
| Waco (Tract 003711) | $272K | $296K | +9.0% | |
| Waco (Tract 002600) | $271K | $294K | +8.1% | |
| Waco (Tract 003000) | $265K | $284K | +7.3% | |
| Waco (Tract 004104) | $275K | $288K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elm Mott · 76640 | $268K | $290K | +8.0% | |
| Moody-Lorena | $223K | $264K | +18.4% | |
| Waco (Tract 003708) | $284K | $331K | +16.8% | |
| Waco (Tract 000598) | $103K | $118K | +14.9% | |
| Waco (Tract 000800) | $137K | $157K | +14.3% | |
| Waco (Tract 002100) | $108K | $122K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elm Mott · 76640 | $268K | $290K | $166K | |
| Waco (Tract 000900) | $144K | $155K | $70K | |
| Waco (Tract 001401) | $111K | $123K | $64K | |
| Waco (Tract 002100) | $108K | $122K | $62K | |
| Waco (Tract 001100) | $110K | $120K | $58K | |
| Waco (Tract 000598) | $103K | $118K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.