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Lubbock, TX · ZIP 79363 · Census Tract 48303010302 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$162K
Downside (P10)
$133K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$174K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$244K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $99K | $103K | $120K | $132K | $135K | $138K | $144K | $157K | $160K | $157K | $162K | $169K | $178K | $174K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$63,528 | -$59,328 | -$42,628 | -$30,528 | -$27,828 | -$24,628 | -$18,028 | -$5,128 | -$1,928 | -$5,728 | +$6,314 | +$15,286 | +$11,965 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.1% | -36.5% | -26.3% | -18.8% | -17.1% | -15.2% | -11.1% | -3.2% | -1.2% | -3.5% | +3.9% | +9.4% | +7.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $140K | $135K | $133K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $210K | $229K | $244K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$140K to $210K
41.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$133K to $244K
63.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallowater · 79363 · (Tract 103.2) | $159K | $174K | +9.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002205) | $161K | $184K | +14.3% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002207) | $162K | $175K | +8.4% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001905) | $167K | $180K | +8.1% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010201) | $159K | $169K | +6.3% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010411) | $162K | $169K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallowater · 79363 · (Tract 103.2) | $159K | $174K | +9.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001808) | $174K | $216K | +23.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002500) | $117K | $138K | +17.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000402) | $199K | $230K | +15.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010423) | $316K | $366K | +15.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001000) | $57K | $66K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallowater · 79363 · (Tract 103.2) | $159K | $174K | $111K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000304) | $84K | $95K | $42K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001200) | $74K | $84K | $41K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001000) | $57K | $66K | $38K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002401) | $77K | $86K | $38K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010204) | $60K | $67K | $31K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lubbock, TX · ZIP 79363 · Census Tract 48303010302 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$162K
Downside (P10)
$133K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$174K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$244K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $99K | $103K | $120K | $132K | $135K | $138K | $144K | $157K | $160K | $157K | $162K | $169K | $178K | $174K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$63,528 | -$59,328 | -$42,628 | -$30,528 | -$27,828 | -$24,628 | -$18,028 | -$5,128 | -$1,928 | -$5,728 | +$6,314 | +$15,286 | +$11,965 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.1% | -36.5% | -26.3% | -18.8% | -17.1% | -15.2% | -11.1% | -3.2% | -1.2% | -3.5% | +3.9% | +9.4% | +7.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $140K | $135K | $133K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $210K | $229K | $244K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$140K to $210K
41.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$133K to $244K
63.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallowater · 79363 · (Tract 103.2) | $159K | $174K | +9.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002205) | $161K | $184K | +14.3% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002207) | $162K | $175K | +8.4% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001905) | $167K | $180K | +8.1% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010201) | $159K | $169K | +6.3% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010411) | $162K | $169K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallowater · 79363 · (Tract 103.2) | $159K | $174K | +9.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001808) | $174K | $216K | +23.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002500) | $117K | $138K | +17.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000402) | $199K | $230K | +15.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010423) | $316K | $366K | +15.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001000) | $57K | $66K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shallowater · 79363 · (Tract 103.2) | $159K | $174K | $111K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000304) | $84K | $95K | $42K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001200) | $74K | $84K | $41K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001000) | $57K | $66K | $38K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002401) | $77K | $86K | $38K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010204) | $60K | $67K | $31K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
